#思科财报超预期股价下跌
Cisco Q4 revenue was $17.3 billion (YoY +18%), and EPS came in at $1.22—both beating expectations. For fiscal year 2027, the revenue guidance is $72.2–$73.4 billion, also crushing Wall Street’s estimates. But the stock first rose about 3% after hours and then quickly reversed; on Thursday it even plunged as much as 9% to around $112.
Why beat expectations but still fell?
1. The stock had already priced it in early. Before the earnings release, Cisco’s stock had already gained more than 60% this year, and in August alone it was up about 8%. The optimistic sentiment around AI has been priced in ahead of time; the results beating expectations are more of a “fulfillment” than the creation of a “new catalyst.”
2. The gross margin guidance was a disappointment. Q1 gross margin guidance was only 65%–66%, below the expected 66.1%. While AI orders were strong (a full-year $9.3 billion), they were hardware-dominated; software and services had a lower share, which directly dragged down profit margins.
3. Order-to-revenue conversion is in question. Full-year AI orders were $9.3 billion, but actual AI revenue in fiscal 2026 was only $4 billion, and the fiscal 2027 guidance is $7.5 billion. The market is questioning why the orders are converting so slowly.
Short term: choppy and slightly bearish 📉 Sentiment is hurt, and profit-taking needs to digest, putting near-term pressure on the stock.
Long term: moderately bullish 📈 Real demand for AI networks exists. Mega-scale cloud service providers are still expanding capital expenditures, and the revenue growth story hasn’t broken.
$CSCO
$NOK
Cisco Q4 revenue was $17.3 billion (YoY +18%), and EPS came in at $1.22—both beating expectations. For fiscal year 2027, the revenue guidance is $72.2–$73.4 billion, also crushing Wall Street’s estimates. But the stock first rose about 3% after hours and then quickly reversed; on Thursday it even plunged as much as 9% to around $112.
Why beat expectations but still fell?
1. The stock had already priced it in early. Before the earnings release, Cisco’s stock had already gained more than 60% this year, and in August alone it was up about 8%. The optimistic sentiment around AI has been priced in ahead of time; the results beating expectations are more of a “fulfillment” than the creation of a “new catalyst.”
2. The gross margin guidance was a disappointment. Q1 gross margin guidance was only 65%–66%, below the expected 66.1%. While AI orders were strong (a full-year $9.3 billion), they were hardware-dominated; software and services had a lower share, which directly dragged down profit margins.
3. Order-to-revenue conversion is in question. Full-year AI orders were $9.3 billion, but actual AI revenue in fiscal 2026 was only $4 billion, and the fiscal 2027 guidance is $7.5 billion. The market is questioning why the orders are converting so slowly.
Short term: choppy and slightly bearish 📉 Sentiment is hurt, and profit-taking needs to digest, putting near-term pressure on the stock.
Long term: moderately bullish 📈 Real demand for AI networks exists. Mega-scale cloud service providers are still expanding capital expenditures, and the revenue growth story hasn’t broken.
$CSCO
$NOK