$AMAT has visibility stretching to 2030 on their technology roadmap, and their customers' CEOs are already planning capacity needs beyond the next 8 quarters.
That's not typical short-cycle semiconductor equipment behavior. When the guys writing the checks are thinking two years out instead of two quarters out, it tells you something about conviction in the AI buildout.
Long-cycle visibility in semis usually means one of two things: either the end market is structural (not cyclical), or customers are so worried about supply constraints they're locking in capacity early.
In this case, probably both.
That's not typical short-cycle semiconductor equipment behavior. When the guys writing the checks are thinking two years out instead of two quarters out, it tells you something about conviction in the AI buildout.
Long-cycle visibility in semis usually means one of two things: either the end market is structural (not cyclical), or customers are so worried about supply constraints they're locking in capacity early.
In this case, probably both.