DOGE is now around 0.0701. I don’t chase longs here, and I’m not in a hurry to go short either—let me explain clearly why.
In the previous post, I said short-term longs were repairing. Now it looks like the “repair” only happens on the contract and sentiment levels. Speculative hype has been pushed back to the level of October 2025. The big-account long exposure is close to eight-tenths. Social-news sentiment scores are also all on the bullish side. The hype is there.
But the direction of the money isn’t right. Spot large orders have had net outflows for the past few candles—over a 3-hour window, across 12 candles, none of them turned positive. While prices are being pushed up, real money is actually flowing out. Derivatives open interest is also declining; the funding rate is below the average. The basis is hovering close to spot, and is still slightly negative. Margin lending volume dropped by 99% over 12 hours.
In plain terms: right now, longs are being supported by positions and sentiment—not by actual buying. This structure is very sensitive to sell pressure. Once the hype cools off, volatility will amplify.
So my choice is to wait. Either wait for spot large orders to return and for volume/flow to pick up, or wait for a pullback to lower support to see whether anyone steps in to absorb it. Chasing here has mediocre risk-reward.
#doge $DOGE
In the previous post, I said short-term longs were repairing. Now it looks like the “repair” only happens on the contract and sentiment levels. Speculative hype has been pushed back to the level of October 2025. The big-account long exposure is close to eight-tenths. Social-news sentiment scores are also all on the bullish side. The hype is there.
But the direction of the money isn’t right. Spot large orders have had net outflows for the past few candles—over a 3-hour window, across 12 candles, none of them turned positive. While prices are being pushed up, real money is actually flowing out. Derivatives open interest is also declining; the funding rate is below the average. The basis is hovering close to spot, and is still slightly negative. Margin lending volume dropped by 99% over 12 hours.
In plain terms: right now, longs are being supported by positions and sentiment—not by actual buying. This structure is very sensitive to sell pressure. Once the hype cools off, volatility will amplify.
So my choice is to wait. Either wait for spot large orders to return and for volume/flow to pick up, or wait for a pullback to lower support to see whether anyone steps in to absorb it. Chasing here has mediocre risk-reward.
#doge $DOGE