DRAM is now around 57.5u. In this round, I’m a bit more bullish, but I won’t chase. I’ll wait for a pullback.
First, the most tangible change this round: contract open interest rose nearly 15% in a single day. In my earlier posts, I repeatedly mentioned the issue that “it went up, but leveraged capital didn’t get the baton.” This time, it looks like that problem has been addressed. Price is above the short-term moving averages. Over the past 24 hours, it’s up nearly 5%, trading close to today’s highs. Volume has also picked up—24-hour trading volume is pushed to nearly 300 million. The depth of buy orders is noticeably thicker than sell orders. The funding rate is still around 0, so it hasn’t overheated.
But it’s not without risks. On the side of aggressive trading, it actually leans toward sells. Over the past 7 hours, the share of aggressive buys has continued to shrink. The long position ratio in big-holder accounts has also dropped by about 10%. At this level, some people start taking profits—those chasing are no longer as synchronized.
In plain terms: both the trend and the capital flow are improving, but the price level isn’t low. Chasing near the highs generally isn’t great on risk-reward.
My approach: don’t chase. Wait for a pullback and confirm it. If the pullback can be absorbed, then I’ll follow with a small position and track. If the direction goes wrong, I’ll cut losses. There’s only one key risk: whether the aggressive buy side can keep up. If it can, there’s still room in this move; if it can’t, high-level volatility will be amplified.
#dram $DRAM
First, the most tangible change this round: contract open interest rose nearly 15% in a single day. In my earlier posts, I repeatedly mentioned the issue that “it went up, but leveraged capital didn’t get the baton.” This time, it looks like that problem has been addressed. Price is above the short-term moving averages. Over the past 24 hours, it’s up nearly 5%, trading close to today’s highs. Volume has also picked up—24-hour trading volume is pushed to nearly 300 million. The depth of buy orders is noticeably thicker than sell orders. The funding rate is still around 0, so it hasn’t overheated.
But it’s not without risks. On the side of aggressive trading, it actually leans toward sells. Over the past 7 hours, the share of aggressive buys has continued to shrink. The long position ratio in big-holder accounts has also dropped by about 10%. At this level, some people start taking profits—those chasing are no longer as synchronized.
In plain terms: both the trend and the capital flow are improving, but the price level isn’t low. Chasing near the highs generally isn’t great on risk-reward.
My approach: don’t chase. Wait for a pullback and confirm it. If the pullback can be absorbed, then I’ll follow with a small position and track. If the direction goes wrong, I’ll cut losses. There’s only one key risk: whether the aggressive buy side can keep up. If it can, there’s still room in this move; if it can’t, high-level volatility will be amplified.
#dram $DRAM