The July U.S. PPI came in flat (0.0%), right in line with expectations, after last week’s CPI showed a slowdown. A key data point because the PPI measures inflation at the producer level: if input costs don’t rise, companies don’t pass pressure on to final prices, and the Fed has fewer excuses to keep rates high.
In crypto, this matters because **risk-on lives on low rates**. A flat PPI combined with last week’s soft CPI reinforces the September cut scenario. Fed Funds futures are already pricing in about ~70% odds of a -25 bps move.
But watch out: the market has already priced this in. BTC is at 63.1K, moving sideways for days, with a bearish bias on the 4H and 1H charts but bullish on the monthly. The Fear Index rose by just two points to 29, still in Fear territory. If the cut comes and price doesn’t react, it’s a sign that liquidity isn’t flowing into crypto yet.
**What matters now isn’t the macro—it’s the internal structure**: BTC swept liquidity below 63.2K (the prior day’s low) and bounced, but it hasn’t reclaimed highs. That’s relative weakness. A flat PPI doesn’t change the lack of buy-side volume above 64K.
Do you think the September cut will trigger a rally, or is everything already priced in? What level are you watching to confirm a bullish turn in BTC?
#USJulyPPIFlat
In crypto, this matters because **risk-on lives on low rates**. A flat PPI combined with last week’s soft CPI reinforces the September cut scenario. Fed Funds futures are already pricing in about ~70% odds of a -25 bps move.
But watch out: the market has already priced this in. BTC is at 63.1K, moving sideways for days, with a bearish bias on the 4H and 1H charts but bullish on the monthly. The Fear Index rose by just two points to 29, still in Fear territory. If the cut comes and price doesn’t react, it’s a sign that liquidity isn’t flowing into crypto yet.
**What matters now isn’t the macro—it’s the internal structure**: BTC swept liquidity below 63.2K (the prior day’s low) and bounced, but it hasn’t reclaimed highs. That’s relative weakness. A flat PPI doesn’t change the lack of buy-side volume above 64K.
Do you think the September cut will trigger a rally, or is everything already priced in? What level are you watching to confirm a bullish turn in BTC?
#USJulyPPIFlat