The “Alt-Season Index” is 68 for this cycle—this number has some artificiality.

Breaking it down: out of 50 samples, 34 outperform BTC, and that’s why the index is 68. The issue lies in the word “outperform.” Over the past 90 days, BTC is down 19.9%; as long as something falls less than BTC, it counts as outperforming. Of those 34, 14 are also negative on their own: $ETH -15.5%, SOL -15.1%, LINK -13.4%, BNB -9.5%, ZEC -5.4%, UNI -3.4%—all of them get counted into the so-called alt-season.

Only 20 out of the 90 days’ worth of actual gainers are truly rising, accounting for 40% of the sample. Moreover, the gains are highly concentrated in small-cap coins: AKE +1627%, VELVET +513%, TUT +256%, APR +229%, CYS +134%. This isn’t a broad counterfeit-led rally; it’s just a few coins lighting fireworks on their own.

The order book also matches. In the past 24 hours, the whole network saw liquidations totaling $116 million, with 59,957 trades. Longs were liquidated for $76.95 million, accounting for 66.6%. The last hour was even more extreme: longs were liquidated for $11.09 million, or 91.4%, while shorts were only liquidated for $0.95 million. $ETH liquidated $27.35 million, $BTC liquidated $20.37 million—together, they come to nearly 40% of the entire network. Anyone who got wiped out was all long positions.

In the same period, AKE was up 50.4% over 24 hours, with trading volume of 589 million. The money didn’t leave; it just moved from the large-cap names to a few smaller ones to place bets.

The Fear & Greed Index is still stuck at 29. Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETF outflows were $61.16 million, and the 7-day cumulative total is still $482 million in net inflows. On holdings: BTC is up slightly by 0.15%, ETH is down 0.32%, and SOL is down 0.8%. There’s no incremental capital coming in—it's just existing liquidity fighting among itself.

So don’t treat 68 as a signal that “the alt season is here.” It’s more like saying: BTC has dropped hard enough that a bunch of coins that are also falling look surprisingly resilient.

Do you think this kind of market where only a few small-cap coins are surging is the beginning of the alt season, or the final wave of liquidity?

#山寨季 #比特币 #爆仓数据 #Market sentiment

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