ONDO will unlock approximately $668 million in tokens within the next six months—a scale that represents a significant expansion relative to its current circulating supply. Market sentiment is broadly concerned that once linear vesting begins, the secondary market could face persistent selling pressure.
Based on past experience, the unlock periods of DeFi and RWA projects are often accompanied by two kinds of signals: first, early movements from on-chain whale addresses; second, abnormal spikes in options-market IV. When both appear at the same time, short-term volatility is usually amplified. For ordinary users, there’s no need to rush to bet on the “unlock equals a crash” scenario, but position management must be handled in advance.
More importantly, the key question is whether this unlock will coincide with progress in the project’s ecosystem. If, around the same time, there is real business adoption, an expansion of partners, or the launch of new products, the sell pressure may be offset by incremental demand. Conversely, if the narrative is the only support, the massive $668 million supply could become an undeniable and hard-to-ignore hidden negative.
Three time windows are worth monitoring: on-chain data during the two weeks before the unlock, net exchange inflows during the week of the unlock, and the strength of price recovery over the 30 days after the unlock. $ONDO is currently near a prior low point, and both valuation and sentiment have already priced in the bad news to a sufficient extent; however, whether this is “the bad news has run its course” or “the bad news will persist” will most likely only become clear when the first batch of tokens actually enters circulation. #ONDO#RWA#TokenUnlock
Based on past experience, the unlock periods of DeFi and RWA projects are often accompanied by two kinds of signals: first, early movements from on-chain whale addresses; second, abnormal spikes in options-market IV. When both appear at the same time, short-term volatility is usually amplified. For ordinary users, there’s no need to rush to bet on the “unlock equals a crash” scenario, but position management must be handled in advance.
More importantly, the key question is whether this unlock will coincide with progress in the project’s ecosystem. If, around the same time, there is real business adoption, an expansion of partners, or the launch of new products, the sell pressure may be offset by incremental demand. Conversely, if the narrative is the only support, the massive $668 million supply could become an undeniable and hard-to-ignore hidden negative.
Three time windows are worth monitoring: on-chain data during the two weeks before the unlock, net exchange inflows during the week of the unlock, and the strength of price recovery over the 30 days after the unlock. $ONDO is currently near a prior low point, and both valuation and sentiment have already priced in the bad news to a sufficient extent; however, whether this is “the bad news has run its course” or “the bad news will persist” will most likely only become clear when the first batch of tokens actually enters circulation. #ONDO#RWA#TokenUnlock