灼见

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In this industry, the most frantic times are powered by information asymmetry. Whoever finds out first which big projects are going to be listed, who gets the private placement quota first—those people can easily profit from arbitrage.

But in today’s crypto world, to be frank, there are more and more “open cards.” ETF flows, macroeconomic data, on-chain anomalies from giant whales—almost everything is transparent. The advantage from information gaps is disappearing at a pace you can literally see with your own eyes.

So then, what will we rely on to make money in the future? We’ll make money from “cognitive gaps” and “differences in resolve.”

When everyone is FOMO-ing into some hot trend, can you independently judge whether it’s sustainable? When the market panics and crashes, can you calmly trace back whether the logic behind your original buy is still valid? Can you hold your positions through months of sideways trading without making random moves?

These can’t be solved by just looking at a few candlesticks or scrolling a few tweets. It requires you to truly understand the industry’s technical evolution (for example, L2, ZK, and AI + Crypto), and it requires you to have independent judgment about macroeconomic cycles. In the future, alpha will definitely belong to people with deep thinking—not to those diligent “information re-posters.”

There are many ways to make money, but only one way to lose it all back.
In the crypto world, you’ve seen too many people get rich overnight, and too many people hit zero.
Some make money through trading, some make money by mining and farming rewards, and others by holding coins long-term.
But in the end, the ones who manage to keep their wealth usually get three things right:
✅ First: Stick to the right things over the long term
Don’t bet on direction, don’t get greedy for short-term gains. Slow is fast. Make small wins and small losses, and avoid big losses.
✅ Second: Have a clear understanding of money
Control your position sizing. Don’t add to your holdings impulsively when you’re emotional. Every investment must be made with a clear idea of how much you can afford to lose.
✅ Third: Continuously improve your understanding
Keep learning, understand market logic, and the compounding effect of your knowledge is the most valuable asset.
Just like that classic saying:
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. Those who understand it make money with it; those who don’t end up paying for it.”
📌 A real master isn’t the one who makes money the fastest, but the one who can last the longest

U.S. July CPI, PPI, and retail sales data all came in soft. Combined with cooling employment, the market’s odds of a September rate hike at the Federal Reserve plunged from 75% to 25%, lifting global stock markets for a third straight week. However, oil prices are still elevated, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has steepened, and the long end of the bond market continues to price in inflation and fiscal deficits. With the Jackson Hole meeting coming into focus in two weeks, it is set to become a key directional signal.

U.S. inflation data unexpectedly cooled, while employment and consumption also softened. This week, market expectations for a September rate hike rapidly unwound. But abnormal signals from the long end of the bond market, the surge in oil prices, and the persistence of hawkish officials are challenging this “pause narrative.”

The probability of a September rate hike fell sharply from 75% in late July to around 25%. That drove global stock markets higher for a third consecutive week, and major U.S. indexes remained near historical highs.

AI infrastructure-related earnings have continued to be strong, providing additional support for technology stocks and allowing equity markets, for the time being, to overlook the warning sounds coming from both oil-price shocks and the long end of the bond market.

Yet the Iran/Strait of Hormuz crisis pushed Brent crude up by nearly 6% this week, approaching $90 per barrel; at the same time, the auction yield on U.S. 30-year Treasuries touched the highest level in 25 years.

While stocks cheer “the Fed turning,” the long end of the bond market is still pricing inflation and fiscal deficits—two sets of logic running in parallel. Who is right versus who is wrong could be the most important trading question of the second half of this year.

Inflation cools, September rate-hike expectations collapse

This week’s biggest macro driver comes from a series of softer U.S. data:

July CPI rose only about 0.1% month over month, and about 3.4% year over year; core inflation pressures continue to ease moderately;

July PPI was flat month over month, coming in below expectations;

July retail sales fell 0.6% month over month, the largest single-month drop in more than a year. It was far worse than the market’s expectation of a slight increase. Weakness in autos, oil prices, and several timing-related factors all weighed on the figures.

Combined with the nonfarm payroll data already released last week (down by 23,000 and revised lower), the soft-data mix caused the market’s expectations for near-term Fed hikes to unravel across the board, erasing all the hawkish premium that had built up since Chair Powell took over.

“I once said that you should get married early, otherwise all that’s left are the inferior ones—the ‘crooked melons and cracked dates.’ At the same time, Charlie Munger once said that in life you only need to get rich once. Based on my years of observation, I now have to disagree with Mr. Munger: if you don’t marry early and end up with one of those inferior partners, then you’ll need to get rich twice in your life.”

Hello everyone. Please pay attention to each other and repost it. $NVDAB

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With a heart full of a smile 😊, begin today’s beauty.
Grateful for every encounter in life 💛, good morning!

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U.S. July CPI, PPI, and retail sales data all came in soft. Combined with cooling employment, the market’s odds of a September rate hike at the Federal Reserve plunged from 75% to 25%, lifting global stock markets for a third straight week. However, oil prices are still elevated, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has steepened, and the long end of the bond market continues to price in inflation and fiscal deficits. With the Jackson Hole meeting coming into focus in two weeks, it is set to become a key directional signal.

U.S. inflation data unexpectedly cooled, while employment and consumption also softened. This week, market expectations for a September rate hike rapidly unwound. But abnormal signals from the long end of the bond market, the surge in oil prices, and the persistence of hawkish officials are challenging this “pause narrative.”

The probability of a September rate hike fell sharply from 75% in late July to around 25%. That drove global stock markets higher for a third consecutive week, and major U.S. indexes remained near historical highs.

AI infrastructure-related earnings have continued to be strong, providing additional support for technology stocks and allowing equity markets, for the time being, to overlook the warning sounds coming from both oil-price shocks and the long end of the bond market.

Yet the Iran/Strait of Hormuz crisis pushed Brent crude up by nearly 6% this week, approaching $90 per barrel; at the same time, the auction yield on U.S. 30-year Treasuries touched the highest level in 25 years.

While stocks cheer “the Fed turning,” the long end of the bond market is still pricing inflation and fiscal deficits—two sets of logic running in parallel. Who is right versus who is wrong could be the most important trading question of the second half of this year.

Inflation cools, September rate-hike expectations collapse

This week’s biggest macro driver comes from a series of softer U.S. data:

July CPI rose only about 0.1% month over month, and about 3.4% year over year; core inflation pressures continue to ease moderately;

July PPI was flat month over month, coming in below expectations;

July retail sales fell 0.6% month over month, the largest single-month drop in more than a year. It was far worse than the market’s expectation of a slight increase. Weakness in autos, oil prices, and several timing-related factors all weighed on the figures.

Combined with the nonfarm payroll data already released last week (down by 23,000 and revised lower), the soft-data mix caused the market’s expectations for near-term Fed hikes to unravel across the board, erasing all the hawkish premium that had built up since Chair Powell took over.

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In this era:
Cognition determines wealth
Choice determines direction
Action determines outcomes
Today’s choices decide the asset landscape half a year and one year from now.
Don’t be a bystander—
become a participant, a builder, and a beneficiary.
Let’s work together to:
Co-create sustainable wealth.
LUCIC walks with you—win in the future.

3400 + 300 = 🎁🎁🎁🎁

🧧 [Follow + Repost + Comment to receive ETH fan rewards | Welcome to follow the trades—let’s steadily grow and multiply in the crypto world]

🧧 It’s better to miss out on unknown windfalls than to expose ourselves to uncontrollable risks.

Every day, the market is filled with legends of “doubling” and sudden surges that tempt us to break the risk controls we already have.

But those high returns chased without a margin of safety are, in essence, just gambling with fate.

If the risk controls fail even once, all the profits accumulated in the past—and even the principal—could instantly become zero.

Learn to say no to market situations you can’t understand or can’t quantify risk for. That is the core underlying logic for protecting your assets.

Welcome to click and follow the trades, lock the risks into a range you can handle, and achieve long-term compounding through continuous rolling growth.

🌹Thank you for helping to share THS 🌹
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✅Wishing your holding market value rises step by step✅
✅Open the trade and profit big, earning money day by day✅

Don't try to become greedier when others are greedy
Or become more fearful when others are afraid
Staying calm is the key!
$BNB 🧧🧧
#1688家族family

— Buffett

Few words, steady action, and a carefree spirit with integrity

Shine without dazzling; still water flows deep

Learn to accept different viewpoints, and don’t refute them.

Because everyone’s original family, upbringing, and educational background are different,

I examine myself three times a day

#Web3 Only compliance can attract big capital.
Traditional finance truly comes in. The old model of telling stories and cutting leeks doesn’t work anymore. In the future, the projects that can survive will be those that follow the rules and can be implemented. If you don’t learn Web3 now, you may very well be the next illiterate.