$XAU Gold is showing signs of short-term weakness after failing to cleanly break above the upper reaction zone. According to Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that XAUUSD may be forming a bearish Elliott structure, and if the sell-wave 3 range continues to hold, price is now preparing for a possible downside continuation.
The key idea is simple: gold may still bounce a little, but the structure favors further downside as long as price remains below resistance.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,395–4,410: sell-wave 3 zone and major resistance
◌ 4,380: current price reaction zone
◌ 4,360–4,365: short-term support / first bearish checkpoint
◌ 4,330–4,345: buy zone and wave 3 target area
◌ 4,270–4,285: wave 5 completion target zone
◌ Above 4,420: area where the bearish setup begins to weaken
⌁ Elliott wave view
From an Elliott wave perspective, gold may be starting a new bearish 5-wave sequence after the recent bullish correction slowed down.
Wave 1 may have formed in the current rejection area.
Wave 2 may produce a small rebound inside the 4,395–4,410 sell zone.
Wave 3 could then push price down toward the 4,330–4,345 buy zone.
Wave 4 may produce a short corrective bounce from that support.
If sellers remain in control, wave 5 could continue toward 4,270–4,285.
That is why Kelly does not currently view the present bounce as a strong bullish continuation. The market is still below a key resistance zone, and the Elliott structure leans bearish.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to retest the sell-wave 3 zone and show bearish confirmation.
Sell zone: 4,395–4,410 if rejection appears
Stop loss: above the confirmed rejection high or above 4,420
Take profit 1: 4,360
Take profit 2: 4,330–4,345
Take profit 3: 4,270–4,285
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,420 and stays strong, the bearish Elliott setup will weaken. In that case, price may continue a larger bullish correction until a new sell structure becomes clear.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, gold is currently in a bearish reaction structure. Price is sitting below the main sell zone, and the next clean setup is to wait for rejection and then follow the downside wave.
Gold may still bounce first.
But if 4,395–4,410 holds as resistance, the next Elliott move may continue downward toward 4,330 and 4,280.
The key idea is simple: gold may still bounce a little, but the structure favors further downside as long as price remains below resistance.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,395–4,410: sell-wave 3 zone and major resistance
◌ 4,380: current price reaction zone
◌ 4,360–4,365: short-term support / first bearish checkpoint
◌ 4,330–4,345: buy zone and wave 3 target area
◌ 4,270–4,285: wave 5 completion target zone
◌ Above 4,420: area where the bearish setup begins to weaken
⌁ Elliott wave view
From an Elliott wave perspective, gold may be starting a new bearish 5-wave sequence after the recent bullish correction slowed down.
Wave 1 may have formed in the current rejection area.
Wave 2 may produce a small rebound inside the 4,395–4,410 sell zone.
Wave 3 could then push price down toward the 4,330–4,345 buy zone.
Wave 4 may produce a short corrective bounce from that support.
If sellers remain in control, wave 5 could continue toward 4,270–4,285.
That is why Kelly does not currently view the present bounce as a strong bullish continuation. The market is still below a key resistance zone, and the Elliott structure leans bearish.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to retest the sell-wave 3 zone and show bearish confirmation.
Sell zone: 4,395–4,410 if rejection appears
Stop loss: above the confirmed rejection high or above 4,420
Take profit 1: 4,360
Take profit 2: 4,330–4,345
Take profit 3: 4,270–4,285
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,420 and stays strong, the bearish Elliott setup will weaken. In that case, price may continue a larger bullish correction until a new sell structure becomes clear.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, gold is currently in a bearish reaction structure. Price is sitting below the main sell zone, and the next clean setup is to wait for rejection and then follow the downside wave.
Gold may still bounce first.
But if 4,395–4,410 holds as resistance, the next Elliott move may continue downward toward 4,330 and 4,280.