BTC live market data
As of the time of publication, BTC is around $63,504. Intraday high is about $64,093 and low about $63,267. Over the past 24 hours, it is down about 0.83%. After the CPI release, interest-rate pressure eased, but BTC still hasn’t shown a clear upward trend.
ETF fund flows
On August 12, US spot BTC ETFs combined saw a net outflow of about $61.16 million, ending the prior three consecutive trading days of modest net inflows.
ETF flows turned negative again, while the BTC price continued to face pressure during the same period, indicating that institutions have not yet formed a sufficiently strong spot bid.
On-chain chips (address-based)
Continuous snapshots from August 12 to 13:
Below 10 BTC: net increase of about 283 BTC; latest total holdings of about 3.4385 million BTC
10—100 BTC: net decrease of 531 BTC, latest total holdings about 4.2209 million BTC
Above 100 BTC: net increase of 472 BTC, latest total holdings about 12.4075 million BTC
Inside above 100 BTC:
100—1,000 BTC: net increase of 2,277 BTC, latest about 5.1748 million BTC
1,000—10,000 BTC: net decrease of 1,783 BTC, latest about 4.2466 million BTC
10,000—100,000 BTC: net decrease of 22 BTC, latest about 2.2705 million BTC
Above 100,000 BTC: net change of 0 BTC, latest about 715,500 BTC
The total number of large addresses is still net increasing, but the entire increase comes from the 100—1,000 BTC bracket. The 1,000—10,000 BTC bracket continues to decline; for now, it still doesn’t look like consistently concentrated “whale” supply.
Stablecoin liquidity
Stablecoin total market cap is about $300.83 billion, up about 0.01% in 24 hours. Up by about $414 million over 7 days (+0.14%), while still down 0.56% over 30 days.
USDT is about $183 billion, down 0.21% over 7 days and down 0.67% over 30 days; USDC is about $72.15 billion, up 0.46% over 7 days, but still down 1.29% over 30 days.
On-chain USD liquidity is still in a state of “stabilizing without expansion”; for now, there are no signs of new capital that could clearly boost spot BTC demand.
Futures data
BTC open interest is about $30.46 billion. At the current price, there is a large clustering of long liquidation risk around $62,700, while a larger concentrated short liquidation zone exists around $66,000.
Leverage positioning hasn’t given a clear direction yet, but with spot demand weak, liquidation zones on both sides could amplify short-term volatility.
Key news today
U.S. July CPI year-over-year fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%. After the data release, market expectations for a September rate hike dropped significantly, but BTC’s reaction remained very weak. Macro rate pressure eased, yet it hasn’t immediately translated into buy-side demand in the crypto market—this divergence is more notable than the CPI numbers themselves.
Meanwhile, Brent crude is down about 2% today to around $87. In the short term, this eases energy inflation pressure, but risks of volatility remain in the Middle East.
Next, mainly watch
The most valuable signal right now is: macro pressure is easing, but ETF outflows are restarting, stablecoins aren’t expanding, and BTC isn’t showing a clear response.
If, going forward, ETFs switch back to larger-scale inflows, while stablecoin weekly net additions expand significantly, and addresses holding 1,000 BTC and above stop declining, it would indicate that the improvement in financial conditions brought by CPI is truly starting to transmit to spot BTC demand. If macro conditions remain somewhat favorable but these three groups of capital data still don’t improve, then it means the main issue isn’t rates, but BTC’s lack of new spot demand itself.