$BTC hovering around $635k, with Ethereum lying flat near $1,880. The panic index is only 30—where will the market go next?
After the CPI data came out, the probability of a September rate hike dropped from fifty percent to forty percent. On the surface, it looks like we can catch our breath, but I advise you not to take it at face value.
The real trouble isn’t in the Fed’s business. Look at the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury auctions hitting 4.683%, the highest since 2007. The 30-year is nearing 5.26%. America’s fiscal deficit in the first 10 months is $1.8 trillion, and total public debt is approaching $40 trillion. Long-end rates are being pushed up—purely—by the government issuing debt.
With those Treasury yields staying elevated on one side, and the yen nearing 160 on the other—rate-hike expectations in Japan getting stronger—carry trades could flip at any moment. Add to that the Russia-Ukraine situation where ports and oil refineries are being blown up every day, and the fuse for energy and food inflation has already been lit.
Old Zhang’s view: In crypto, the biggest enemy right now is U.S. Treasury yields and tightening global liquidity. What the Fed does to add or cut rates is just surface-level.
Old Zhang’s trading suggestions:
Go long: if you’re itching to trade, enter at the current price with a light position; enter more steadily if it stabilizes around 63,000.
Go short: wait for a push up into the 64,500–65,000 area, and enter when it meets resistance.
Can Bitcoin try to surge to 65,000 in the short term? It won’t be easy. If you’re holding positions, watch the 63,000 line—if it breaks, don’t stubbornly hold on.
Want to know the latest message and the best entry level? Come to the room below to find Old Zhang!
#美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 #Shein据报最早8月20日启动港股IPO认购
$ETH $HYPE
After the CPI data came out, the probability of a September rate hike dropped from fifty percent to forty percent. On the surface, it looks like we can catch our breath, but I advise you not to take it at face value.
The real trouble isn’t in the Fed’s business. Look at the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury auctions hitting 4.683%, the highest since 2007. The 30-year is nearing 5.26%. America’s fiscal deficit in the first 10 months is $1.8 trillion, and total public debt is approaching $40 trillion. Long-end rates are being pushed up—purely—by the government issuing debt.
With those Treasury yields staying elevated on one side, and the yen nearing 160 on the other—rate-hike expectations in Japan getting stronger—carry trades could flip at any moment. Add to that the Russia-Ukraine situation where ports and oil refineries are being blown up every day, and the fuse for energy and food inflation has already been lit.
Old Zhang’s view: In crypto, the biggest enemy right now is U.S. Treasury yields and tightening global liquidity. What the Fed does to add or cut rates is just surface-level.
Old Zhang’s trading suggestions:
Go long: if you’re itching to trade, enter at the current price with a light position; enter more steadily if it stabilizes around 63,000.
Go short: wait for a push up into the 64,500–65,000 area, and enter when it meets resistance.
Can Bitcoin try to surge to 65,000 in the short term? It won’t be easy. If you’re holding positions, watch the 63,000 line—if it breaks, don’t stubbornly hold on.
Want to know the latest message and the best entry level? Come to the room below to find Old Zhang!
#美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 #Shein据报最早8月20日启动港股IPO认购
$ETH $HYPE