July inflation didn’t give the market any new direction. The US CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI increased 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year—everything was in line with market expectations. The data isn’t hot enough to reignite concerns about a rate hike in the near term, but it also isn’t weak enough to pull forward rate-cut expectations clearly. This CPI feels more like removing a stone from the path than lighting a fire.
It’s worth noting that energy prices fell 1.5% month-on-month in July. Meanwhile, negotiations between Iran and the US regarding the Strait of Hormuz have still not been truly resolved, and energy risks could be transmitted back into August inflation at any time. Tonight, July PPI takes the baton. If producer-side inflation continues to stay moderate, the market will have reason to further price in policy easing. If PPI comes in above expectations, the temporary calm brought by CPI will be quickly reversed.
Long and short positioning remains tilted toward longs. The latest account data shows longs at about 62.7% and shorts at about 37.3%. Although this is down from the intraday peak of 65.4%, the level of crowding is still relatively high. BTC open interest is about 110,400 contracts—an increase of roughly 2,200 from the previous record. The funding rate remains slightly positive.
Prices aren’t showing a clear rally, yet leverage continues to build up—suggesting that after CPI was released, some capital is already positioning for a breakout. This kind of structure has two sides: once price breaks above key resistance, new positions can become a booster; if it falls below support, crowded longs can turn into fuel for a stampede. What the market fears most isn’t a lack of direction—it’s that everyone gets positioned in the same direction in advance.
It’s worth noting that energy prices fell 1.5% month-on-month in July. Meanwhile, negotiations between Iran and the US regarding the Strait of Hormuz have still not been truly resolved, and energy risks could be transmitted back into August inflation at any time. Tonight, July PPI takes the baton. If producer-side inflation continues to stay moderate, the market will have reason to further price in policy easing. If PPI comes in above expectations, the temporary calm brought by CPI will be quickly reversed.
Long and short positioning remains tilted toward longs. The latest account data shows longs at about 62.7% and shorts at about 37.3%. Although this is down from the intraday peak of 65.4%, the level of crowding is still relatively high. BTC open interest is about 110,400 contracts—an increase of roughly 2,200 from the previous record. The funding rate remains slightly positive.
Prices aren’t showing a clear rally, yet leverage continues to build up—suggesting that after CPI was released, some capital is already positioning for a breakout. This kind of structure has two sides: once price breaks above key resistance, new positions can become a booster; if it falls below support, crowded longs can turn into fuel for a stampede. What the market fears most isn’t a lack of direction—it’s that everyone gets positioned in the same direction in advance.