1. Bitcoin: spot trading volume has fallen to a minimum since 2019
According to Glassnode, the spot trading volume of Bitcoin has reached the lowest level since statistics began in 2019. The price is stuck between $63,000 (the median realized price) and $68,700 (the cost basis for short-term holders). At the same time, Bitcoin is reacting weakly to a positive macro backdrop — even falling inflation and record highs in the stock market do not provide momentum.
Glassnode warns: a breakdown of the $63,000 support level could trigger a pullback to the June low of around $58,500. With weak demand and overloaded long positions, losing this level is capable of sparking an accelerated drop. Analysts see signs of seller exhaustion, but sustained demand has not returned yet—ETF inflows remain modest, and coins continue to flow to exchanges.
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2. U.S. public debt and rates
In ten months of the fiscal year, the U.S. has already allocated $963 billion** to service the national debt, and, according to forecasts for the full year, payments will reach a record **$1.38 trillion (about 4.2% of GDP)**. The national debt has surpassed 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II.
At 15:30 today, they will publish producer price index (PPI) data. The forecast calls for the year-over-year PPI to fall to 4.9%. Hitting the forecast or coming in below it will be positive for markets. The new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, whom Trump has promoted to cut rates, is still taking a hawkish stance and is not rushing to ease—rising inflation pressure forces him to balance between White House demands and objective reality.
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3. SpaceX: +40% over 5 trading days
SpaceX shares rose by about 40% over five trading days and closed at $146.15. The rally came after restrictions on selling company shares (lock-up expiry) were lifted—contrary to expectations, short positions fell sharply from 34% to 11%. Cathie Wood, who bought SpaceX on the dip 10 times, turned profitable when the price reached $145. The company’s market capitalization reached approximately $1.92 trillion.
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4. Michael Burry is beefing up shorts in the AI sector
The famous investor Michael Burry ("The Big Short") increased short positions in Nebius (NBIS) at $247, Micron (MU) at $924, Oracle (ORCL) at $152, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX). He called Nebius “something that looks like a paper top,” pointing to inflated prices for short-term contracts for AI computing—twice as high as medium-term rates.
Notably, Nebius rose 34% in the main session yesterday despite his remarks. Burry also increased long positions in Mercado Libre and Zoetis.
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Overall takeaway: the crypto market is in a phase of extreme consolidation with the risk of a move toward $58,500; the macro backdrop (U.S. debt, PPI, and the Fed’s stance) remains the key factor for all risk assets; in the stock market, there is a sharp divergence—rallies in SpaceX and Nebius amid Burry’s shorting buildup in the same sector.
