$XAU Many people feel that gold and silver have already reached historical highs, and there is limited space for further increases, even worrying about potential pullbacks at any time. However, I am even more confident about the precious metals market in 2026. The core logic is not emotional speculation but rather the resonance of macroeconomic factors, supply and demand, and safe-haven forces. High positions are just the starting point, not the endpoint.

First, let's look at gold. Its core drivers have never been short-term speculation but rather the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, global de-dollarization, and central banks' continuous gold purchases, creating a triple certainty. The expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026 has already solidified, with a very high probability of the first rate cut in March. The weakening of the dollar and the decline in real interest rates are certainties, and the opportunity cost of holding gold has significantly decreased. Funds will only continue to flow into ETFs and futures, with positions reaching a two-year high being just the beginning. More critically, the global central bank gold purchasing spree has never ceased, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for 14 consecutive months, and countries like Russia and India also accelerating their gold accumulation. This long-term buying directly supports gold prices. The demand for safe-haven assets driven by geopolitical conflicts and high U.S. debt levels has made gold the 'ultimate safe haven' for funds. Even with short-term fluctuations, the logic of a trend upward has fundamentally not broken.

Looking at silver, it is more resilient than gold due to the dual resonance of its financial and industrial properties, along with the catalyst of a short squeeze. On the financial side, it benefits from the dividends of interest rate cuts and safe-haven investments, leading to intensified speculation in futures. On the industrial side, the supply-demand gap that has persisted for five years will only widen in 2026. The demand explosion from photovoltaics, AI computing centers, and new energy vehicles contrasts with the supply constraints caused by production cuts in Peru and Chile, and insufficient recycled silver. The spot shortage is already evident—price inversion, soaring borrowing rates, and a severe lack of deliverable warehouse receipts on COMEX. The drama of bulls squeezing bears to close positions at high levels will continue. The increase in January far exceeding that of gold is not coincidental but a necessary result of supply and demand imbalance. Although silver is highly volatile, with an average daily fluctuation of 5-6%, as long as industrial demand does not cool and the spot gap is not filled, the logic of squeezing will not easily come to an end. Even if there are short-term corrections, the long-term upward potential remains significant.

Many people fear 'buying at high positions', but the 'high' of precious metals is supported by fundamentals, not bubbles. The high of gold is backed by three guarantees: interest rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and safe-haven demand; the high of silver is driven by industrial demand, spot shortages, and supply-demand mismatches due to a short squeeze. Historically, the bull market for precious metals has never been achieved overnight, but has continuously reached new highs amidst skepticism. The key variables for 2026—the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace, geopolitical conflicts, and industrial demand for silver—are all moving in a direction favorable to precious metals. Even if there are corrections along the way, they represent opportunities for positioning rather than signals to exit.

In operation, gold is suitable for low-position layout and long-term holding, with strict position control and no chasing high prices; silver is not recommended for ordinary investors to engage in short-term trading. It is more prudent to wait for the squeeze sentiment to ease and price corrections before entering. Short-term players must set strict stop losses and be wary of fluctuations after sentiment recedes. However, in the long run, as long as the core logic remains unchanged, the bull market for precious metals is far from over.