CPI cools, but the market hasn’t gotten the “rate-cut script” yet
U.S. July inflation data came in steadily: CPI rose 0.1% month over month, and year over year eased from 3.5% to 3.4%. Core CPI rose 0.2% month over month, with year over year falling from 2.6% to 2.5%, both in line with market expectations.
But there’s one point in the image that needs correction: what the market is discussing now is not a “September rate cut,” but whether the Federal Reserve will keep hiking. After the CPI release, the expectation for a September hike clearly cooled; current market pricing implies roughly a 40% chance. Keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% remains the more likely option.
After the data came out, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar weakened. Gold first fell and then rose, while BTC continued to digest the news within its trading range. The reason is simple: even though inflation is easing to 3.4%, it still isn’t close to the 2% target; the longer-term pressures from energy, tariffs, and fiscal deficits have not disappeared either.
So this CPI report only suggests that the Fed in September is “not as urgent to hike,” but it does not mean a new easing cycle has restarted. Next up, PPI, PCE, and employment data are the real key. For the crypto market, the short-term reaction is somewhat positive—but until the policy path becomes completely clear, it’s more like pressure relief rather than a launch signal for a one-way trend.#美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 $BTC
U.S. July inflation data came in steadily: CPI rose 0.1% month over month, and year over year eased from 3.5% to 3.4%. Core CPI rose 0.2% month over month, with year over year falling from 2.6% to 2.5%, both in line with market expectations.
But there’s one point in the image that needs correction: what the market is discussing now is not a “September rate cut,” but whether the Federal Reserve will keep hiking. After the CPI release, the expectation for a September hike clearly cooled; current market pricing implies roughly a 40% chance. Keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% remains the more likely option.
After the data came out, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar weakened. Gold first fell and then rose, while BTC continued to digest the news within its trading range. The reason is simple: even though inflation is easing to 3.4%, it still isn’t close to the 2% target; the longer-term pressures from energy, tariffs, and fiscal deficits have not disappeared either.
So this CPI report only suggests that the Fed in September is “not as urgent to hike,” but it does not mean a new easing cycle has restarted. Next up, PPI, PCE, and employment data are the real key. For the crypto market, the short-term reaction is somewhat positive—but until the policy path becomes completely clear, it’s more like pressure relief rather than a launch signal for a one-way trend.#美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 $BTC