EWY is currently around 177u, grinding right next to the 24-hour high at 178.69. Direction-wise, I’m not bearish, but at this spot I won’t chase.
The rally is real. Four 4-hour candles show four positives and two negatives, and the daily chart also closed bullish. In a single day it surged from around 170 to nearly 4% up. The medium-term moving averages are still underfoot, and the trend looks fine. The order book isn’t bad either: the buy orders are thicker than the sell orders by more than 30%, and the spread is so tight it’s almost face-to-face.
The problem is: where is the money coming from.
On the spot side, these five observation K-lines show net inflow of zero—none at all came in, not a drop. That doesn’t match this round of gains. The futures side is even more striking: aggressive sell orders outweigh buys, with buys making up only a bit more than 40%. Open interest rose 12% in a day, but the price is stuck at the high while it grinds without rising further. Leverage has piled up, but there’s no follow-through. Big players are also reducing longs—the long positions have dropped a few percentage points.
Put simply, the trend still stands on the long side, but the “relay” money hasn’t come in. At this kind of level, the worst fear is a push higher with nobody to take it—price becomes especially sensitive to sell pressure.
So I won’t chase. I’ll wait for a pullback: once it tests near the medium-term moving averages and shows acceptance/support, then I’ll consider going back in. Or I’ll wait until the spot side’s large orders resume net inflow and the aggressive buying flips to being clearly dominant—only then is the trend truly confirmed.
#ewy $EWY
The rally is real. Four 4-hour candles show four positives and two negatives, and the daily chart also closed bullish. In a single day it surged from around 170 to nearly 4% up. The medium-term moving averages are still underfoot, and the trend looks fine. The order book isn’t bad either: the buy orders are thicker than the sell orders by more than 30%, and the spread is so tight it’s almost face-to-face.
The problem is: where is the money coming from.
On the spot side, these five observation K-lines show net inflow of zero—none at all came in, not a drop. That doesn’t match this round of gains. The futures side is even more striking: aggressive sell orders outweigh buys, with buys making up only a bit more than 40%. Open interest rose 12% in a day, but the price is stuck at the high while it grinds without rising further. Leverage has piled up, but there’s no follow-through. Big players are also reducing longs—the long positions have dropped a few percentage points.
Put simply, the trend still stands on the long side, but the “relay” money hasn’t come in. At this kind of level, the worst fear is a push higher with nobody to take it—price becomes especially sensitive to sell pressure.
So I won’t chase. I’ll wait for a pullback: once it tests near the medium-term moving averages and shows acceptance/support, then I’ll consider going back in. Or I’ll wait until the spot side’s large orders resume net inflow and the aggressive buying flips to being clearly dominant—only then is the trend truly confirmed.
#ewy $EWY