Over the past 7 days, Cardano has risen by 10.49%, the highest gain among major coins in the same period. BTC is up about 2%, and ETH is also up about 2%. Against the backdrop of the overall market trading sideways, ADA’s independent strength stands out.
To sustain a 10% move, there needs to be a real catalyst behind it, and I dug into it and found two.
First: the ETF review window. Once CME’s Cardano futures have been live for 6 months, the SEC triggers a 75-day fast-track review process. ADA spot ETF applications then enter a simplified approval procedure. This doesn’t mean the ETF will definitely be approved, but the door in the process has opened— the market is pricing in the possibility in advance.
Second: the Ouroboros Leios upgrade. Hoskinson described this upgrade as the most significant protocol change in Cardano’s history. The public testnet has been completed; the final sign-off by the constitutional committee was completed in July. The exact mainnet deployment time hasn’t been locked in yet, but it’s getting closer. The goal of this upgrade is to raise Cardano’s throughput to a level that can compete with Solana—making it the foundation for whether the ADA ecosystem can truly support larger-scale applications.
When two catalysts exist at the same time, it’s rare to see a dual-engine structure among major coins. From a technical perspective, ADA has built an ascending channel since late July. Recently, it broke through a key resistance level, and short-term momentum is relatively strong.
Risks: the ETF may not be approved, and the upgrade timeline could be delayed. If either of these fails, the gains could quickly retrace. But with both catalysts present and both progressing within their respective time windows, this move has structural support rather than being purely sentiment-driven.
Are you paying attention to ADA’s ETF developments? Do you think this rally can continue? Share your view and reasoning.
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