TUT Now at around 6.4. From the historical high near 2.4, it was cut down to here in three days—down 70%. I’m not in a rush to call for longs here, and I’m not in a rush to call for shorts either—the signals the market is showing are twisted and conflicting.
First, the money rushing in. In the last three hours, spot large orders had net inflows of over 100 million—continuous net inflow for twelve straight candles without a break; that’s real money. Now look at the retail side: spot trades executed aggressively still make up the majority of the selling pressure, with sell orders accounting for more than 50%. In plain terms, there’s capital underneath absorbing the coins being thrown out by retail traders.
Leverage is cooperating too. Open interest has shrunk by nearly 15% in one day, and the funding rate has flipped negative. The long positions that chased the rally have basically been washed out. Now there aren’t a bunch of crowded longs sitting there getting in the way. Big traders’ accounts are also adding to longs. The money’s direction is testing lower levels.
But here’s the problem: the trend hasn’t actually flipped yet. The one-hour and four-hour directions are still all down, with price pinned below the moving averages and grinding right along the 24-hour lows. In this kind of structure, “buying the dip” directly is going against the trend—volatility is also high, and you can get slapped at any moment.
So my stance is: don’t chase longs, and don’t chase shorts. Just watch whether this low today can hold—whether large net inflows can continue. If it holds and volume keeps coming in, then this low-level buyback is valid. There’s no rush to enter; you can look for the entry point when it turns back. If the low breaks, then the account for taking those buys has to be recalculated.
Just watch for now and wait for the market to give the answer.
#tut $TUT
First, the money rushing in. In the last three hours, spot large orders had net inflows of over 100 million—continuous net inflow for twelve straight candles without a break; that’s real money. Now look at the retail side: spot trades executed aggressively still make up the majority of the selling pressure, with sell orders accounting for more than 50%. In plain terms, there’s capital underneath absorbing the coins being thrown out by retail traders.
Leverage is cooperating too. Open interest has shrunk by nearly 15% in one day, and the funding rate has flipped negative. The long positions that chased the rally have basically been washed out. Now there aren’t a bunch of crowded longs sitting there getting in the way. Big traders’ accounts are also adding to longs. The money’s direction is testing lower levels.
But here’s the problem: the trend hasn’t actually flipped yet. The one-hour and four-hour directions are still all down, with price pinned below the moving averages and grinding right along the 24-hour lows. In this kind of structure, “buying the dip” directly is going against the trend—volatility is also high, and you can get slapped at any moment.
So my stance is: don’t chase longs, and don’t chase shorts. Just watch whether this low today can hold—whether large net inflows can continue. If it holds and volume keeps coming in, then this low-level buyback is valid. There’s no rush to enter; you can look for the entry point when it turns back. If the low breaks, then the account for taking those buys has to be recalculated.
Just watch for now and wait for the market to give the answer.
#tut $TUT