#XAUUSD Gold price holds the 4362–4450 range and continues to trade in a choppy pattern as both longs and shorts stay cautious ahead of the US CPI data tonight, maintaining an overall high-range oscillation structure.
Key catalyst: US July CPI data
Tonight’s released US inflation figures are the near-term turning point for the market and will directly determine the outlook for the Fed’s September rate hike expectations. The market had already pared back the probability of a September hike after the July nonfarm payrolls came in far below expectations. If CPI falls more than expected, the rate-hike bets will be pushed further out, which is supportive for gold prices; if inflation rebounds more than expected, it will weigh on the gold outlook.
Gold has formed a typical “shooting star” pattern. The KDJ and RSI indicators have entered the overbought zone, and short-term long momentum is clearly weakening, suggesting a pullback and correction is needed. However, the moving-average system still keeps a bullish alignment, the MACD red histogram continues, and the medium-term uptrend structure has not been broken. What we have now is a high-level consolidation phase within an ongoing upswing.
Key levels
Resistance: 4435, 4450, 4480
Support: 4390, 4350, 4300
Trading approach: Continue to favor going long on dips; for short positions, only try them with light sizing at key resistance levels.
Buy on the pullback in the 4395–4400 area, stop loss at 4380, and target 4420–4450
Risk warning
Data releases may cause extremely volatile price action. Be sure to set stop losses strictly, keep positions small, and avoid taking oversized bets on the data to prevent risk.
Key catalyst: US July CPI data
Tonight’s released US inflation figures are the near-term turning point for the market and will directly determine the outlook for the Fed’s September rate hike expectations. The market had already pared back the probability of a September hike after the July nonfarm payrolls came in far below expectations. If CPI falls more than expected, the rate-hike bets will be pushed further out, which is supportive for gold prices; if inflation rebounds more than expected, it will weigh on the gold outlook.
Gold has formed a typical “shooting star” pattern. The KDJ and RSI indicators have entered the overbought zone, and short-term long momentum is clearly weakening, suggesting a pullback and correction is needed. However, the moving-average system still keeps a bullish alignment, the MACD red histogram continues, and the medium-term uptrend structure has not been broken. What we have now is a high-level consolidation phase within an ongoing upswing.
Key levels
Resistance: 4435, 4450, 4480
Support: 4390, 4350, 4300
Trading approach: Continue to favor going long on dips; for short positions, only try them with light sizing at key resistance levels.
Buy on the pullback in the 4395–4400 area, stop loss at 4380, and target 4420–4450
Risk warning
Data releases may cause extremely volatile price action. Be sure to set stop losses strictly, keep positions small, and avoid taking oversized bets on the data to prevent risk.