```
📰 Goose Quant AI Morning News · August 13
The Warsh era’s first week at the Fed begins with the inaugural central bank week: a **dove versus hawk showdown**—Bowman testifies and CCAR stress tests hit the same day.
```
```
🎯 Must-watch today
1. 22:00 Bowman testimony to Congress — Reiterates bank capital/regulatory framework language; hawkish-leaning, bearish risk assets
2. 04:00 the next day CCAR/DFAST stress tests — Large banks’ expected CET1 at 11–12%; breaking the threshold hits bank stocks
3. All-day 6/19 week report delayed and reissued (7 reports including H.4.1 etc.) — Temporary disruption to U.S. Treasury and dollar liquidity
```
```
📊 Core numbers
Interest rate 3.50–3.75% · Maintain ≈95% for 7/28–29 · Terminal median 3.8% (↑40bp, including 1 rate hike)
```
```
🪙 Crypto perspective
Higher terminal rate guidance for SEP + Warsh leaning hawkish = DXY and U.S. Treasury yields stay firm; BTC/ETH face upward-pressure headwinds.
Watch Bowman’s 22:00 phrasing—if he emphasizes “capital adequacy / anti-inflation,” avoid chasing longs in the short term and wait for a pullback.
```
```
—————————— Details for reference below ——————————
```
```
💹 Full-year probability matrix (CME futures + SEP estimates)
| FOMC | -25 | Hold | +25 |
| ----------- | ----- | ------ | ----- |
| 7/28–29 | 3% | **95%** | 2% |
| 9/15–16 | 2% | 50% | **48%** |
| 10/27–28 | 10% | 45% | **45%** |
| 12/8–9 | 20% | **55%** | 25% |
```
```
📋 This week’s schedule (Beijing time)
| Time | Event | Level |
| ------------ | ------------------------------ | ---- |
| Monday 21:00 | Waller speech / Barr CDBA dialogue | 🟡 Medium |
| Monday 22:00 | Bowman testimony | 🔴 ↑See “Must-watch today” |
| Tuesday 04:00 | CCAR/DFAST stress tests | 🔴 ↑See “Must-watch today” |
| Thursday 02:00 | SCOOS credit officer survey | 🟡 Medium |
| 07/08 02:00 | FOMC June meeting minutes | 🔴 High |
```
```
🔴 Key points from the last decision (still effective)
· FOMC unanimously holds 3.50–3.75%
· Dot plot terminal median 3.8% for 2026, up 40bp—implies another rate hike later this year
· PCE/GDP/inflation wording adjustments: remove “inflation gradually easing”
```
```
ℹ️ The 30-year mortgage rate rises to 7.18%; the market is repricing an additional rate hike in the Warsh era this year.
```
```
⏰ August 13 09:30 (CST) · Goose Quant AI · For reference only
```
📊 Crypto market snapshot (August 13 09:30 CST)
```
| Coin | Price | 24h |
| ---- | ------- | ------ |
| BTC | $63,415.77 | -0.51% |
| ETH | $1,876.42 | — |
| SOL | $75.56 | — |
| BNB | $609.92 | — |
| DOGE | $0.06985 | — |
BTC 24h trading volume $879.3M
```
📰 Goose Quant AI Morning News · August 13
The Warsh era’s first week at the Fed begins with the inaugural central bank week: a **dove versus hawk showdown**—Bowman testifies and CCAR stress tests hit the same day.
```
```
🎯 Must-watch today
1. 22:00 Bowman testimony to Congress — Reiterates bank capital/regulatory framework language; hawkish-leaning, bearish risk assets
2. 04:00 the next day CCAR/DFAST stress tests — Large banks’ expected CET1 at 11–12%; breaking the threshold hits bank stocks
3. All-day 6/19 week report delayed and reissued (7 reports including H.4.1 etc.) — Temporary disruption to U.S. Treasury and dollar liquidity
```
```
📊 Core numbers
Interest rate 3.50–3.75% · Maintain ≈95% for 7/28–29 · Terminal median 3.8% (↑40bp, including 1 rate hike)
```
```
🪙 Crypto perspective
Higher terminal rate guidance for SEP + Warsh leaning hawkish = DXY and U.S. Treasury yields stay firm; BTC/ETH face upward-pressure headwinds.
Watch Bowman’s 22:00 phrasing—if he emphasizes “capital adequacy / anti-inflation,” avoid chasing longs in the short term and wait for a pullback.
```
```
—————————— Details for reference below ——————————
```
```
💹 Full-year probability matrix (CME futures + SEP estimates)
| FOMC | -25 | Hold | +25 |
| ----------- | ----- | ------ | ----- |
| 7/28–29 | 3% | **95%** | 2% |
| 9/15–16 | 2% | 50% | **48%** |
| 10/27–28 | 10% | 45% | **45%** |
| 12/8–9 | 20% | **55%** | 25% |
```
```
📋 This week’s schedule (Beijing time)
| Time | Event | Level |
| ------------ | ------------------------------ | ---- |
| Monday 21:00 | Waller speech / Barr CDBA dialogue | 🟡 Medium |
| Monday 22:00 | Bowman testimony | 🔴 ↑See “Must-watch today” |
| Tuesday 04:00 | CCAR/DFAST stress tests | 🔴 ↑See “Must-watch today” |
| Thursday 02:00 | SCOOS credit officer survey | 🟡 Medium |
| 07/08 02:00 | FOMC June meeting minutes | 🔴 High |
```
```
🔴 Key points from the last decision (still effective)
· FOMC unanimously holds 3.50–3.75%
· Dot plot terminal median 3.8% for 2026, up 40bp—implies another rate hike later this year
· PCE/GDP/inflation wording adjustments: remove “inflation gradually easing”
```
```
ℹ️ The 30-year mortgage rate rises to 7.18%; the market is repricing an additional rate hike in the Warsh era this year.
```
```
⏰ August 13 09:30 (CST) · Goose Quant AI · For reference only
```
📊 Crypto market snapshot (August 13 09:30 CST)
```
| Coin | Price | 24h |
| ---- | ------- | ------ |
| BTC | $63,415.77 | -0.51% |
| ETH | $1,876.42 | — |
| SOL | $75.56 | — |
| BNB | $609.92 | — |
| DOGE | $0.06985 | — |
BTC 24h trading volume $879.3M
```