This candle around 63,570 has its surface lying sideways, but underneath it actually hasn’t been cleaned up yet. Last night it dumped from 64,450 on heavy volume down to 63,283; the big bearish candle in just four hours directly broke the rebound. After that, the pullback only reached 63,886. It kept failing to reclaim 64,000, and the 1-hour high also keeps moving lower. This move isn’t like the bulls restarting again—it feels more like a weak repair after distribution. Wyckoff tests are approaching the SOW level, but there’s no confirmed Spring yet.
More likely, the main force will first sweep the long positions below to see 63,100—62,800. If it quickly pokes down and then snaps back, then there could be a pullback to 63,800—64,100. But if that pullback lacks volume and can’t get back above 64,100, then we’ll likely keep looking at 62,660, with an extreme extension target at 62,250. Today’s high is likely 63,900—64,300, and today’s low is likely 62,800—63,100; the low is more likely to appear first.
The funding conditions also don’t support chasing longs: OI rose from a low point back to 111,000 contracts, but price didn’t strengthen in sync. The long/short ratio climbed to 1.85, funding rate is positive, and the aggressive buy side doesn’t have sustained dominance. Crowded longs become fuel for further downside. Only if a 4-hour session reclaims 64,200 and then pulls back to test and holds 64,000—64,200 would the current bearish path be considered invalid.
More likely, the main force will first sweep the long positions below to see 63,100—62,800. If it quickly pokes down and then snaps back, then there could be a pullback to 63,800—64,100. But if that pullback lacks volume and can’t get back above 64,100, then we’ll likely keep looking at 62,660, with an extreme extension target at 62,250. Today’s high is likely 63,900—64,300, and today’s low is likely 62,800—63,100; the low is more likely to appear first.
The funding conditions also don’t support chasing longs: OI rose from a low point back to 111,000 contracts, but price didn’t strengthen in sync. The long/short ratio climbed to 1.85, funding rate is positive, and the aggressive buy side doesn’t have sustained dominance. Crowded longs become fuel for further downside. Only if a 4-hour session reclaims 64,200 and then pulls back to test and holds 64,000—64,200 would the current bearish path be considered invalid.