SOL is currently around 75.7u. I’m going to keep watching from here—I’m not in a hurry to pick a side.
Price has been hovering around the 76 area for several days. Over the past 7 days, the low was 72 and the high was 77.8, and it has been stuck in a range, moving back and forth. In the short term it’s trading close to the 20-day moving average, but the 50-day moving average is overhead, acting as resistance that it can’t break. On the 4-hour timeframe, the directional bias is still downward. The ADX is only around 11, indicating a typical weak-trend environment—it's like a tug-of-war, with neither side clearly gaining control.
But if you say it’s weak, the news flow isn’t weak. In the past 24 hours, social media sentiment has been almost one-sidedly bullish. Positive feedback like ETF inflows and ecosystem revenues are there. The spot order book also has thicker buy walls than sell walls—about 60% more on the buy side. Even large orders on the 15-minute chart are still net inflows. On the big account side, more than 70% are betting long, and the overall chip structure doesn’t look like it’s preparing to exit.
The problem is this: there’s plenty of good news and hot sentiment, but the price just can’t climb. Interestingly, the 3-hour spot flow is actually net outflow, suggesting this burst of heat is mostly lingering in talk and in the order placements, while the truly sustained capital hasn’t fully stepped in yet.
So my view is: good news and price are fighting each other. Until direction is clear, don’t rush to chase. If it can hold the 72–74 area on the downside, that matters. If it can break above 76–77 with volume on the upside, that matters too. Wait for the funds to give confirmation before acting—it's more comfortable than guessing the direction right now.
#sol $SOL
Price has been hovering around the 76 area for several days. Over the past 7 days, the low was 72 and the high was 77.8, and it has been stuck in a range, moving back and forth. In the short term it’s trading close to the 20-day moving average, but the 50-day moving average is overhead, acting as resistance that it can’t break. On the 4-hour timeframe, the directional bias is still downward. The ADX is only around 11, indicating a typical weak-trend environment—it's like a tug-of-war, with neither side clearly gaining control.
But if you say it’s weak, the news flow isn’t weak. In the past 24 hours, social media sentiment has been almost one-sidedly bullish. Positive feedback like ETF inflows and ecosystem revenues are there. The spot order book also has thicker buy walls than sell walls—about 60% more on the buy side. Even large orders on the 15-minute chart are still net inflows. On the big account side, more than 70% are betting long, and the overall chip structure doesn’t look like it’s preparing to exit.
The problem is this: there’s plenty of good news and hot sentiment, but the price just can’t climb. Interestingly, the 3-hour spot flow is actually net outflow, suggesting this burst of heat is mostly lingering in talk and in the order placements, while the truly sustained capital hasn’t fully stepped in yet.
So my view is: good news and price are fighting each other. Until direction is clear, don’t rush to chase. If it can hold the 72–74 area on the downside, that matters. If it can break above 76–77 with volume on the upside, that matters too. Wait for the funds to give confirmation before acting—it's more comfortable than guessing the direction right now.
#sol $SOL
