Gold is now around 4412 and has ground its way back to the doorstep of the highs.
First, the conclusion: this level is still a wait-and-see point. I’m neither chasing longs nor rushing to short.
In the past few days, price has been grinding back and forth within the range of 4366 to 4448. Yesterday it even dipped to 4373, but it has pulled back up to 4412 now. However, over the last 4 hours it’s already starting to lose momentum—within the past 24 hours it’s risen by less than 1 point, and instead of continuing upward, it’s beginning to go sideways right around the 24h high.
The key is the contracts side. Open interest dropped by 8 points in a day, which suggests that after this rally, funds are withdrawing rather than adding—both longs and shorts are converging. The funding rate is still 0, and the proportion of active buy executions is only a bit above 49%, so there isn’t any particularly obvious follow-through from the buy side.
In the order book, buy orders are actually leaning more than sell orders, and the spot depth is tilted toward buyers. So in the short term it probably won’t drop sharply. But this kind of low-volume, shrinking-position move lacks fuel for an upside breakout.
So my view is: until a clear direction is chosen, the risk-reward of chasing longs isn’t great. Wait for a breakout of the range or a pullback and confirmation before making a move.
#xau $XAU
First, the conclusion: this level is still a wait-and-see point. I’m neither chasing longs nor rushing to short.
In the past few days, price has been grinding back and forth within the range of 4366 to 4448. Yesterday it even dipped to 4373, but it has pulled back up to 4412 now. However, over the last 4 hours it’s already starting to lose momentum—within the past 24 hours it’s risen by less than 1 point, and instead of continuing upward, it’s beginning to go sideways right around the 24h high.
The key is the contracts side. Open interest dropped by 8 points in a day, which suggests that after this rally, funds are withdrawing rather than adding—both longs and shorts are converging. The funding rate is still 0, and the proportion of active buy executions is only a bit above 49%, so there isn’t any particularly obvious follow-through from the buy side.
In the order book, buy orders are actually leaning more than sell orders, and the spot depth is tilted toward buyers. So in the short term it probably won’t drop sharply. But this kind of low-volume, shrinking-position move lacks fuel for an upside breakout.
So my view is: until a clear direction is chosen, the risk-reward of chasing longs isn’t great. Wait for a breakout of the range or a pullback and confirmation before making a move.
#xau $XAU