$BTC $ETH $SOL
The macro thing that’s most easily underestimated this round isn’t CPI itself, but the transmission chain that follows it.
July’s CPI has already been released: headline 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year; core 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year. On the surface it looks fairly mild, but what crypto really needs to trade is the subsequent confirmation: tonight’s PPI, the Fed minutes around August 19, and the BEA PCE on August 26. Especially PCE—it's an inflation measure the Fed likes more.
The mechanism isn’t complicated. If inflation keeps cooling, market expectations for USD interest rates loosen a bit, and BTC and ETH will first absorb the shift in risk appetite; if the major coins hold steady, then high-beta assets like SOL are more likely to catch the sentiment. Conversely, if PPI or PCE re-ignites services inflation and energy pressures, alts will bleed before the majors.
So I won’t just watch a single bullish candle. If BTC can’t hold above 63,200 and ETH falls back below 1,860, it means money is still in defense mode. Only when the majors can stay steady for two consecutive days, and then SOL increases volume and breaks/holds around 77, can the ecosystem narrative be considered truly connected.
#BTC #ETH #SOL
The macro thing that’s most easily underestimated this round isn’t CPI itself, but the transmission chain that follows it.
July’s CPI has already been released: headline 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year; core 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year. On the surface it looks fairly mild, but what crypto really needs to trade is the subsequent confirmation: tonight’s PPI, the Fed minutes around August 19, and the BEA PCE on August 26. Especially PCE—it's an inflation measure the Fed likes more.
The mechanism isn’t complicated. If inflation keeps cooling, market expectations for USD interest rates loosen a bit, and BTC and ETH will first absorb the shift in risk appetite; if the major coins hold steady, then high-beta assets like SOL are more likely to catch the sentiment. Conversely, if PPI or PCE re-ignites services inflation and energy pressures, alts will bleed before the majors.
So I won’t just watch a single bullish candle. If BTC can’t hold above 63,200 and ETH falls back below 1,860, it means money is still in defense mode. Only when the majors can stay steady for two consecutive days, and then SOL increases volume and breaks/holds around 77, can the ecosystem narrative be considered truly connected.
#BTC #ETH #SOL