Original link: (Big Ideas 2026)
Original compilation: CryptoLeo (@LeoAndCrypto)
Recently, Cathie Wood's Ark Invest released the annual report for 2026 (Big Ideas 2026). This report focuses on AI, robotics, blockchain, energy storage, and multi-omics (a research approach and strategy in the field of biology), which ARK refers to as five major technology platforms. The five platforms will depend on each other, catalyze, and promote the accelerated integration of technologies, thus creating new platform functions. It states that the world is entering an unprecedented technological investment cycle, where the innovation of each technology platform will have far-reaching macroeconomic impacts, and each technology platform will provide structural driving forces for global growth.
The report also briefly mentioned quantum computing, such as the long-standing concern about quantum computing breaking Bitcoin's encryption. ARK stated that the performance improvements in quantum computing have been relatively gradual, despite significant investments in its research and development. Google has only doubled the number of qubits over more than four years. Even if its performance and cost improve significantly, reaching the pace of Moore's Law, quantum computing will not be available for cryptographic decryption until the 2040s.
Odaily compiled and organized the crypto-related content in (Big Ideas 2026), Enjoy~
1. Blockchain and Bitcoin
Once blockchain achieves mass adoption, all funds and contracts will migrate on-chain, where these blockchains can verify digital scarcity and proof of ownership. The financial ecosystem is likely to be reconfigured to accommodate the rise of cryptocurrencies (including connections between traditional finance and stablecoins) and smart contracts. These technologies are expected to enhance transparency, reduce the impact of capital and regulatory control, and lower contract execution costs.
As more assets become currency-like, and businesses and consumers adapt to the new financial infrastructure, digital wallets will become increasingly necessary. These wallets will evolve into AI-driven purchasing agents, potentially developing into distribution platforms for digital services.
The above figure shows the price trend of Bitcoin throughout 2025 alongside key events related to Bitcoin, from Trump's inauguration speech at the beginning of 2025 to Bitcoin's strategic reserve, culminating in the end of the year with the Vanguard Group's interaction with Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin is maturing as an emerging asset class, with U.S. Bitcoin ETFs and publicly listed companies holding 12% of the total Bitcoin supply. In 2025, the balance of Bitcoin ETFs grew by 19.7%, from approximately 1.12 million to about 1.29 million, while publicly listed companies' holdings increased by 73%, from approximately 598,000 to about 1.09 million. The circulation of Bitcoin held by ETFs and listed companies increased from 8.7% to 12%.
The risk-adjusted annual return rate of Bitcoin (i.e., the Sharpe ratio) has consistently exceeded the average of the cryptocurrency market over time. For most of 2025, Bitcoin's risk-adjusted returns were higher than most other large-cap cryptocurrencies. Since the recent cycle's low point (November 2022), early 2024, and early 2025, its average annual Sharpe ratio has also outperformed ETH, SOL, and the average of the other 9 tokens in the top 10 by market cap.
In 2025, the decline in Bitcoin's price relative to its historical peak narrowed, with its volatility decreasing as Bitcoin's role as a safe-haven asset strengthened. Over the spans of 5 years, 3 years, 1 year, and 3 months, the drawdown of Bitcoin in 2025 was not significant compared to historical drawdowns.
As gold prices steadily rise and the adoption of stablecoins accelerates. ARK's Bitcoin valuation model for 2030 has seen two changes: the total TAM for digital gold is projected to grow by 37% after a 64.5% rise in gold market value in 2025; due to the rapid adoption of stablecoins in developing countries, the penetration rate of Bitcoin as a safe haven in emerging markets has decreased by 80%.
Reference Reading: (Ark Invest publishes Bitcoin valuation model: BTC expected to start at $500,000 in 2030)
By 2030, the market value of digital assets may reach $28 trillion, with smart contracts and pure digital currency markets potentially growing to $28 trillion at an annual growth rate of about 61% by 2030. ARK believes Bitcoin could capture 70% of this market, with the remainder dominated by ETH and Solana.
Data shows that Ethereum remains the preferred blockchain for on-chain players, with assets on Ethereum now exceeding $400 billion. Among the eight mainstream blockchains, seven have stablecoins and the top 50 tokens accounting for about 90% of market value. On blockchains other than Solana, the market share of meme coins is about 3% or lower. On Solana, the market share of meme coins is about 21%.
According to ARK's predictions, Bitcoin is likely to dominate the cryptocurrency market capitalization, growing at an approximate compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63% over the next five years, from nearly $2 trillion to $16 trillion by 2030.
By 2030, the market capitalization of smart contracts could grow at an annual rate of 54%, reaching approximately $6 trillion, generating around $192 billion in annual revenue at an average fee rate of 0.75%.
Two to three L1 smart contract platforms are expected to hold the majority of the market share, with market capitalizations derived from monetary premiums (value storage and reserve asset characteristics) exceeding discounted cash flows.
2. Tokenized Assets
Thanks to the (GENIUS Act), financial institutions are re-evaluating their stablecoin and tokenization strategies. With the clarity of (GENIUS Act) related regulations, stablecoin activity surged to historical highs. Multiple companies and institutions are launching their own stablecoins, with BlackRock disclosing plans for an internal tokenization platform. Large enterprises and fintech companies like Tether, Circle, and Stripe are launching or supporting Layer 1 blockchains optimized for stablecoins.
In December 2025, stablecoin transaction volume reached $3.5 trillion, far exceeding most traditional payment systems:
In December 2025, the 30-day moving average of adjusted stablecoin transaction volume was $3.5 trillion, 2.3 times that of Visa, PayPal, and remittances combined.
Circle's stablecoin USDC dominates adjusted transaction volume, with a share of approximately 60%, followed by Tether's USDT at about 35%.
In 2025, the supply of stablecoins grew by about 50%, from $210 billion to $307 billion, with USDT and USDC accounting for 61% and 25%, respectively.
Sky Protocol is a stablecoin issuer with a market cap exceeding $10 billion by the end of 2025. Notably, PayPal's PYUSD saw its market cap grow more than sixfold, reaching $3.4 billion.
Led by U.S. Treasuries and commodities, the market for tokenized assets doubled in 2025, reaching $19 billion.
In 2025, the market value of tokenized real-world assets (RWA) grew by 208%, reaching $1.89 billion.
BlackRock's BUIDL money market fund, with a scale of $1.7 billion, is one of the largest products, accounting for 20% of the $9 billion U.S. Treasury.
Tether (XAUT) and Paxos (PAXG) lead in tokenized gold products, increasing to $1.8 billion and $1.6 billion respectively, accounting for 83% of the total.
The amount of public stock tokenization is nearing $750 million.
RWA may become one of the fastest-growing categories; despite decentralized assets occupying a large portion of global value, off-chain assets still represent the biggest growth opportunity for on-chain adoption.
By 2030, the global tokenized asset market may exceed $11 trillion.
By 2030, tokenized assets may grow from $19 billion to $11 trillion, accounting for approximately 1.38% of global financial assets.
Although sovereign debt is currently the main area for tokenization, bank deposits and global public equities are likely to present a larger share on-chain in the next five years. With the development of regulatory clarity and institutional-grade infrastructure, tokenization is likely to see widespread adoption.
Traditional companies are expanding their on-chain presence by launching their own infrastructure. For instance, Circle (Arc), Coinbase (Base, cbBTC), Kraken (Ink), OKX (X Layer), Robinhood (Robinhood Chain), and Stripe (Tempo) are all launching L1/L2 networks named after their respective brands to support their own products, such as loans collateralized by Bitcoin, tokenized stocks and ETFs, and payment channels based on stablecoins.
3. DeFi Applications
Digital asset value capture has shifted from networks to applications, with networks becoming public utilities rather than economic layers, pushing user economics and profits to the application layer. Under the leadership of Hyperliquid, Pump.fun, and Pancakeswap, the total revenue of DeFi applications in 2025 reached a historical high of approximately $3.8 billion.
In 2025, one-fifth of the application revenue was generated in January, marking the highest single-month revenue in history. Today, there are 70 applications and protocols with monthly recurring revenue (MRR) exceeding $1 million.
Assets of DeFi and stablecoin issuers are catching up to many fintech companies. The gap in platform assets between traditional fintech platforms and native cryptocurrency platforms is narrowing, indicating a convergence of traditional infrastructure and on-chain infrastructure. DeFi protocols like liquid staking or lending platforms are attracting institutional capital and rapidly scaling.
Among the top 50 DeFi platforms, each platform's TVL exceeds $1 billion, while each of the top 12 platforms has a TVL exceeding $5 billion. The companies with the highest revenue efficiency globally include Hyperliquid, Tether, and Pump.fun.
In 2025, Hyperliquid generated annual revenue of over $800 million with fewer than 15 employees. Perpetual contracts, stablecoins, and meme coins, as on-chain verticals, have a clear product-market fit, capable of attracting users and capital at scale.
On-chain businesses and protocols are redefining productivity, with double-digit employee counts driving world-class revenue and profitability.
In the perpetual contract market, DeFi derivatives led by Hyperliquid are capturing market share from Binance.
Layer 1 is evolving from revenue-generating networks to monetary assets. Applying a 50x high-growth revenue multiple to its network income indicates that over 90% of Ethereum's market capitalization is attributed to its role as a monetary asset.
Solana generated $1.4 billion in revenue, indicating that 90% of its valuation is dependent on its network utility.
Only a few crypto assets can retain monetary properties as a liquid means of value storage.
Additionally, the ARK report also mentioned artificial intelligence, noting that since the ChatGPT boom, the growth rate of data center systems has increased from 5% annually to 29%. As AI foundational models become a new layer of internet architecture, consumer interactions with applications are gradually decreasing, with more interactions occurring through AI Agents. This structural shift is intensifying the digital experience for consumers. The speed at which consumers adopt artificial intelligence far exceeds their initial acceptance of the internet. By 2030, AI Agents are expected to facilitate over $8 trillion in online consumption. The share of AI Agents in digital transactions is expected to continue to rise—from 2% of online spending in 2025 to about 25% by 2030.
By 2030, AI Agents are expected to generate approximately $900 billion in business and advertising revenue. As AI agents drive the transformation of the digital economy, the consumer revenue mediated by AI is projected to grow at an annual rate of about 105%, rising from around $20 billion currently to about $900 billion by 2030. Lead generation and advertising will drive most of the growth, far exceeding the contributions from consumer subscription revenue.
Currently, the infrastructure closest to AI Agent consumption in the crypto industry is the x402 protocol, which has also facilitated the development of crypto + AI.