My CPI Prediction Before the Data Drops 🇺🇸📊
I’m expecting the July U.S. CPI data to come in softer than the previous reading, and my base-case prediction is:
• Headline CPI: 3.4% YoY
• Headline CPI: +0.1% MoM
• Core CPI: 2.5% YoY
• Core CPI: +0.2% MoM
This is also broadly in line with the current economist consensus. Reuters reports the same expectations, while other market forecasts are pointing toward a moderate inflation reading.
My Bitcoin View
If the numbers come around these levels, I expect the first reaction to be bullish for Bitcoin.
The key number for me is Core CPI.
If Core comes in at 0.2% or lower, I would consider that a positive inflation surprise and expect the market to price in a more dovish Fed outlook.
My strongest prediction:
Headline: 3.4%
Core: 2.5%
And if we get an even softer print, such as 3.3% headline or lower, the bullish reaction could be significantly stronger.
Of course, CPI can surprise in either direction. But based on the current consensus and available forecasts, my pre-release bias is BULLISH for Bitcoin.
Now we wait for the actual numbers. 👀📈
$BTC #Write2Earn #cpi
I’m expecting the July U.S. CPI data to come in softer than the previous reading, and my base-case prediction is:
• Headline CPI: 3.4% YoY
• Headline CPI: +0.1% MoM
• Core CPI: 2.5% YoY
• Core CPI: +0.2% MoM
This is also broadly in line with the current economist consensus. Reuters reports the same expectations, while other market forecasts are pointing toward a moderate inflation reading.
My Bitcoin View
If the numbers come around these levels, I expect the first reaction to be bullish for Bitcoin.
The key number for me is Core CPI.
If Core comes in at 0.2% or lower, I would consider that a positive inflation surprise and expect the market to price in a more dovish Fed outlook.
My strongest prediction:
Headline: 3.4%
Core: 2.5%
And if we get an even softer print, such as 3.3% headline or lower, the bullish reaction could be significantly stronger.
Of course, CPI can surprise in either direction. But based on the current consensus and available forecasts, my pre-release bias is BULLISH for Bitcoin.
Now we wait for the actual numbers. 👀📈
$BTC #Write2Earn #cpi