At the beginning of last month, I said that Bitcoin would still drop more. And my view remains unchanged to this day.
On the large-cycle weekly level: linking the 2022 low and last December’s high of 126,000 (units), Bitcoin did find solid support around 57,800. And it’s certainly not easy for a weekly-level MACD bottom divergence to form—but in other words, weekly-level bottom divergence tends to be rather sluggish. More often, price action will consolidate and adjust, digesting the divergence, rather than immediately breaking out into a full reversal pattern.
On the short-cycle four-hour level: within the range of 67,000 to 57,800, Bitcoin has been ranging for nearly two months. This lines up perfectly with the weekly-level bottom divergence followed by consolidation and repair.
Let’s think in another way: if after a weekly-level bottom divergence the market rebounds and repairs, then on a smaller cycle (or an even smaller timeframe), the price action should break out to form a local bottom. But currently, instead of seeing that, we’ve had two months of bottom-side consolidation. That’s not building a base—it’s essentially waiting for the weekly technical indicators to recover. And there should still be lower levels ahead.
For technical confirmation: on the four-hour level, during these two months Bitcoin has formed a bearish triangle pattern. The indicators shown in the chart have repeatedly suggested a desire to move upward, but the price action clearly lacks momentum. As for overhead resistance: with the passage of time, in my view this resistance zone will be around 66,500. At that level, I personally would start positioning for a short. For downside targets, I think it is highly likely to reach around 40,000. And at the 40K level, I believe there will be a more certain bottom support. If someone wants to go long, I personally would only consider it after it reaches 40,000. (This cycle will likely last about 4 months.)#BTC $BTC
On the large-cycle weekly level: linking the 2022 low and last December’s high of 126,000 (units), Bitcoin did find solid support around 57,800. And it’s certainly not easy for a weekly-level MACD bottom divergence to form—but in other words, weekly-level bottom divergence tends to be rather sluggish. More often, price action will consolidate and adjust, digesting the divergence, rather than immediately breaking out into a full reversal pattern.
On the short-cycle four-hour level: within the range of 67,000 to 57,800, Bitcoin has been ranging for nearly two months. This lines up perfectly with the weekly-level bottom divergence followed by consolidation and repair.
Let’s think in another way: if after a weekly-level bottom divergence the market rebounds and repairs, then on a smaller cycle (or an even smaller timeframe), the price action should break out to form a local bottom. But currently, instead of seeing that, we’ve had two months of bottom-side consolidation. That’s not building a base—it’s essentially waiting for the weekly technical indicators to recover. And there should still be lower levels ahead.
For technical confirmation: on the four-hour level, during these two months Bitcoin has formed a bearish triangle pattern. The indicators shown in the chart have repeatedly suggested a desire to move upward, but the price action clearly lacks momentum. As for overhead resistance: with the passage of time, in my view this resistance zone will be around 66,500. At that level, I personally would start positioning for a short. For downside targets, I think it is highly likely to reach around 40,000. And at the 40K level, I believe there will be a more certain bottom support. If someone wants to go long, I personally would only consider it after it reaches 40,000. (This cycle will likely last about 4 months.)#BTC $BTC