Tonight 8:30 release: July CPI
The market is watching four key data points:
Overall and core inflation—month-over-month and year-over-year
S&P Dow Jones estimate year-over-year around 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively
Consensus core month-over-month at 0.2%
Bank of America’s threshold:
A monthly average >0.25% almost locks in a September rate hike; <0.2% means it’s delayed; 0.2–0.25% is basically a coin toss
If the data is mild, the Fed may stand pat; if it surprises to the upside, pressure for September rises sharply. Combined with the weak July nonfarm payrolls, if inflation rebounds tonight, the Fed will face a dilemma of “high inflation but weakening jobs.”
Market: Bitcoin in the 63k–65k range. If it slips lower, and 63k proves unstable, be alert for a shift in sentiment. $BTC
The market is watching four key data points:
Overall and core inflation—month-over-month and year-over-year
S&P Dow Jones estimate year-over-year around 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively
Consensus core month-over-month at 0.2%
Bank of America’s threshold:
A monthly average >0.25% almost locks in a September rate hike; <0.2% means it’s delayed; 0.2–0.25% is basically a coin toss
If the data is mild, the Fed may stand pat; if it surprises to the upside, pressure for September rises sharply. Combined with the weak July nonfarm payrolls, if inflation rebounds tonight, the Fed will face a dilemma of “high inflation but weakening jobs.”
Market: Bitcoin in the 63k–65k range. If it slips lower, and 63k proves unstable, be alert for a shift in sentiment. $BTC