Latest news: On August 12, a well-known trader, Doctor Profit, posted that a certain historical indicator for Bitcoin is sending a signal that the “bottom has already formed or is very close.” In 2015, 2019, and 2022, the bear-market bottom formation phase began when the 3–6 month HODLers’ realized price fell below the 1–2 year HODLers’ realized price. He believes this means newer buyers capitulate in losses and sell, and Bitcoin gradually transfers to longer-term holders. The crossover is now appearing for the fourth time, while the BTC price is below the average cost basis of both cohorts. However, historically this signal does not immediately lead to a reversal; Bitcoin typically still goes through several months of sideways trading to complete the bottoming process, so this stage can also be viewed as a long-term accumulation period.

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