Wednesday afternoon XAU Jingyi strategy. Tonight at 8:30, the CPI blockbuster data will be released. The current market outlook is highly divided on the Fed’s September rate decision, with intense bulls-and-bears games. The softer-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls last Friday have already been a positive catalyst for gold, pushing prices higher. Tonight’s CPI will set the tone for the short-term up-and-down rhythm.
Data reference: prior 3.5%, market expectation 3.4%
If CPI is below expectations (<3.4%): inflation cools, rate-hike expectations ease. After gold breaks through 4435, it should continue strong. Follow the trend to go long, targeting 4470–4490 and challenging the 4500 level.
If CPI is above expectations (>3.5%): inflation rebounds, weighing on gold and capping bullish momentum. This rally may top out in stages. If the data is a downside surprise, short directly in line with the move. A sustained break below 4362 could accelerate the drop toward 4330–4320.
Yesterday’s gold overall surged then pulled back. In the morning, bullish momentum remained strong, rising quickly from around 4388 and reaching the 4435 high. After that, price met resistance and dumped, breaking below the day’s initial rise level at 4388, with the low probing 4356 before finding support.
The U.S. session saw gold maintain a narrow range between 4365 and 4400 to repair.
Today, early on, gold steadied and bounced near 4362, then strongly broke above yesterday’s U.S. session high of 4400. Before the CPI data hits tonight, the market overall is oscillating with a bullish bias, and near-term bulls are in control.
The current key bull/bear pivot is support at 4362–4365. This zone has repeatedly tested lows and held firm, showing solid support. In addition, the earlier breakout base around 4370 makes this the crucial determinant of intraday strength and weakness. After rallying to 4415 in the morning, price pulled back slightly to 4395 and then stabilized again—bullish momentum continues.
Trading suggestion
On a pullback to 4375–4380, look for long positions. Targets: 4400–4440. After a break above 4415, the first time during the U.S. session price reaches 4430–4435, it could be a spot to try a short-term short trade.
Data reference: prior 3.5%, market expectation 3.4%
If CPI is below expectations (<3.4%): inflation cools, rate-hike expectations ease. After gold breaks through 4435, it should continue strong. Follow the trend to go long, targeting 4470–4490 and challenging the 4500 level.
If CPI is above expectations (>3.5%): inflation rebounds, weighing on gold and capping bullish momentum. This rally may top out in stages. If the data is a downside surprise, short directly in line with the move. A sustained break below 4362 could accelerate the drop toward 4330–4320.
Yesterday’s gold overall surged then pulled back. In the morning, bullish momentum remained strong, rising quickly from around 4388 and reaching the 4435 high. After that, price met resistance and dumped, breaking below the day’s initial rise level at 4388, with the low probing 4356 before finding support.
The U.S. session saw gold maintain a narrow range between 4365 and 4400 to repair.
Today, early on, gold steadied and bounced near 4362, then strongly broke above yesterday’s U.S. session high of 4400. Before the CPI data hits tonight, the market overall is oscillating with a bullish bias, and near-term bulls are in control.
The current key bull/bear pivot is support at 4362–4365. This zone has repeatedly tested lows and held firm, showing solid support. In addition, the earlier breakout base around 4370 makes this the crucial determinant of intraday strength and weakness. After rallying to 4415 in the morning, price pulled back slightly to 4395 and then stabilized again—bullish momentum continues.
Trading suggestion
On a pullback to 4375–4380, look for long positions. Targets: 4400–4440. After a break above 4415, the first time during the U.S. session price reaches 4430–4435, it could be a spot to try a short-term short trade.