CPI hasn’t been released yet. First, BTC surged from 65,374 and then pulled back to 63,212. The 4-hour big bearish candle has already broken the upward structure. The current price around 63,700 is only a weak corrective rebound. When the 1-hour rally reached 63,886, volume dwindled. Above 63,800 there has been continuous selling pressure. Price action looks more like a rebound after a drop rather than a new bullish cycle restarting.
Bajie’s view: today the main force is more likely to sweep the long positions below first. We’ll look for 63,200–63,000; if this area only weakly holds, then continue to hunt for liquidity at 62,800–62,500. For the upside rebound, first watch 63,850–64,100. If price can’t reclaim 64,100, the rebound will be an opportunity for short sellers to reduce positions and re-press. OI is still high. The long/short account ratio is about 1.75, and the funding rate remains positive. However, active buy pressure hasn’t been persistently dominant. The crowded longs are still the fuel beneath.
Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. CPI will be released. Market expectations are total CPI YoY 3.4%, core CPI YoY 2.5%, and core CPI MoM 0.2%. Given the pullback in energy and cooling employment, Bajie expects total CPI is likely to ease moderately, but the core CPI MoM may not weaken significantly in tandem—more of a mixed outcome where the “headline looks better, core remains sticky.” After the news, price will likely sweep longs first and then choose direction. If both core CPI and housing also cool, only after 64,100 is reclaimed would we look for 64,400–64,800. Until the 4-hour timeframe reclaims 64,500, the main path still leans bearish.
Bajie’s view: today the main force is more likely to sweep the long positions below first. We’ll look for 63,200–63,000; if this area only weakly holds, then continue to hunt for liquidity at 62,800–62,500. For the upside rebound, first watch 63,850–64,100. If price can’t reclaim 64,100, the rebound will be an opportunity for short sellers to reduce positions and re-press. OI is still high. The long/short account ratio is about 1.75, and the funding rate remains positive. However, active buy pressure hasn’t been persistently dominant. The crowded longs are still the fuel beneath.
Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. CPI will be released. Market expectations are total CPI YoY 3.4%, core CPI YoY 2.5%, and core CPI MoM 0.2%. Given the pullback in energy and cooling employment, Bajie expects total CPI is likely to ease moderately, but the core CPI MoM may not weaken significantly in tandem—more of a mixed outcome where the “headline looks better, core remains sticky.” After the news, price will likely sweep longs first and then choose direction. If both core CPI and housing also cool, only after 64,100 is reclaimed would we look for 64,400–64,800. Until the 4-hour timeframe reclaims 64,500, the main path still leans bearish.