ETH is currently around 1887. It bounced back from the recent low near 1852 over the past couple of days, but I’m not in a rush to chase this rebound—for now.
On the short-term structure, things are being repaired: price has moved back above the two 15-minute moving averages, the 4-hour chart has flipped upward, and the daily chart is still not damaged. The news backdrop is also getting more active. Over the last 24 hours, sentiment has been skewed bullish and fairly strong—compliant trading, whales accumulating coins, roadmap narratives, all telling a story to the bulls.
But what I care about most is where the money is actually going. Spot large orders have seen a significant net outflow over the past 3 hours. In the last 12 candles, there hasn’t been a single red one—only in the most recent 15 minutes did it just start to turn positive. The whales’ accounts’ long-share ratio has also been cutting down further over these 7 hours. In plain terms: price is bouncing, but the big money hasn’t truly come back with real cash.
Technically, it’s also awkward. MACD is still sitting below, ADX is only 17, the market is stuck in a ranging zone, directional signals aren’t very trustworthy, and volatility is extremely elevated—chasing longs in this kind of environment can get you hit from both sides.
So my stance remains to wait. If the rebound is going to continue, I need to see spot capital flowing back consistently and large orders turning positive; otherwise, it’s just a pullback driven by sentiment.
I’d rather wait for direction here than chase. If ETH can hold above 1887 and then break out with volume, we can consider following. Otherwise, we’ll see how to choose within the range of 1850–1897.
#eth $ETH
On the short-term structure, things are being repaired: price has moved back above the two 15-minute moving averages, the 4-hour chart has flipped upward, and the daily chart is still not damaged. The news backdrop is also getting more active. Over the last 24 hours, sentiment has been skewed bullish and fairly strong—compliant trading, whales accumulating coins, roadmap narratives, all telling a story to the bulls.
But what I care about most is where the money is actually going. Spot large orders have seen a significant net outflow over the past 3 hours. In the last 12 candles, there hasn’t been a single red one—only in the most recent 15 minutes did it just start to turn positive. The whales’ accounts’ long-share ratio has also been cutting down further over these 7 hours. In plain terms: price is bouncing, but the big money hasn’t truly come back with real cash.
Technically, it’s also awkward. MACD is still sitting below, ADX is only 17, the market is stuck in a ranging zone, directional signals aren’t very trustworthy, and volatility is extremely elevated—chasing longs in this kind of environment can get you hit from both sides.
So my stance remains to wait. If the rebound is going to continue, I need to see spot capital flowing back consistently and large orders turning positive; otherwise, it’s just a pullback driven by sentiment.
I’d rather wait for direction here than chase. If ETH can hold above 1887 and then break out with volume, we can consider following. Otherwise, we’ll see how to choose within the range of 1850–1897.
#eth $ETH