CYS is now around 1.22u. A day ago I just touched the historical high near 1.78, and now it’s fallen back to mid-slope again—down nearly 8% in 24 hours.
Let me first clarify what the nature of this level is. This week it has more than doubled. In just 3 days it rose by nearly 30%, and the momentum is indeed strong. But the problem lies in how it’s pulling back—after making a new high, it didn’t manage to hold; it turned and got smashed downward. The open interest shrank by a quarter in a single day, which indicates the leveraged positions that were pushed up are rapidly withdrawing. This is deleveraging and releasing risk—not a healthy pullback.
The order book isn’t cooperating either. The spot buy-side limit orders are noticeably thinner than the sell side. Depth is below 0.55. On the futures side, the aggressive buy orders are not even half of that. The long/short ratio is only about 0.9. In other words, when it drops now, there’s a lack of support/consumption to take the selling pressure; the price is especially sensitive to sell orders. One sell-wall liquidation order can easily push the price further down.
Then add in its float/circulating supply: market cap is around 200 million, while the circulating ratio is only a bit over 16%—a typical low-float, high-volatility profile. It rises fast, and it can fall just as fast. When leverage enters and exits, the swing will be very large.
So I won’t chase this level. After a violent surge just peaked and entered the liquidation/leverage phase, the buy side still isn’t strong. Chasing longs here has mediocre cost-effectiveness. Wait until this round of forced liquidation finishes releasing leverage; then see if the pullback can be met by buyers again at some level, and only then consider. For now, just watch—don’t rush to catch a flying knife.
#cys $CYS
Let me first clarify what the nature of this level is. This week it has more than doubled. In just 3 days it rose by nearly 30%, and the momentum is indeed strong. But the problem lies in how it’s pulling back—after making a new high, it didn’t manage to hold; it turned and got smashed downward. The open interest shrank by a quarter in a single day, which indicates the leveraged positions that were pushed up are rapidly withdrawing. This is deleveraging and releasing risk—not a healthy pullback.
The order book isn’t cooperating either. The spot buy-side limit orders are noticeably thinner than the sell side. Depth is below 0.55. On the futures side, the aggressive buy orders are not even half of that. The long/short ratio is only about 0.9. In other words, when it drops now, there’s a lack of support/consumption to take the selling pressure; the price is especially sensitive to sell orders. One sell-wall liquidation order can easily push the price further down.
Then add in its float/circulating supply: market cap is around 200 million, while the circulating ratio is only a bit over 16%—a typical low-float, high-volatility profile. It rises fast, and it can fall just as fast. When leverage enters and exits, the swing will be very large.
So I won’t chase this level. After a violent surge just peaked and entered the liquidation/leverage phase, the buy side still isn’t strong. Chasing longs here has mediocre cost-effectiveness. Wait until this round of forced liquidation finishes releasing leverage; then see if the pullback can be met by buyers again at some level, and only then consider. For now, just watch—don’t rush to catch a flying knife.
#cys $CYS