```
📰 GOOSE QUANT AI Morning News · August 12
Warsh Era’s first inaugural week of the central bank: **Dove vs. Eagle duel** — Bowman testifies + CCAR stress testing both on the same day.
```
```
🎯 Must Watch Today
1. 22:00 Bowman Congressional testimony — reiterates banks’ capital/regulatory definitions; hawkish-negative risk for risk assets
2. Next day 04:00 CCAR/DFAST stress test — large banks’ expected CET1 at 11–12%; breach-level shock to bank stocks
3. All day 6/19 deferred week report re-issue (including 7 reports such as H.4.1 etc.) — temporary disruption to U.S. Treasuries and dollar liquidity
```
```
📊 Key Numbers
Interest rate 3.50–3.75% · Maintain ~95% on 7/28–29 · Terminal median 3.8% (↑40bp, includes 1 additional rate hike)
```
```
🪙 Crypto Perspective
SEP terminal rate revised upward + Warsh leaning hawkish = DXY and U.S. Treasury yields remain firm; BTC/ETH face upward pressure.
Watch Bowman’s remarks at 22:00. If he emphasizes “capital adequacy/anti-inflation,” avoid chasing longs in the short term and wait for a pullback.
```
```
—————————— For detailed reference below ——————————
```
```
💹 Full-year Probability Matrix (CME Futures + SEP Implied)
| FOMC | -25 | Hold | +25 |
| ----------- | ----- | ------ | ----- |
| 7/28–29 | 3% | **95%** | 2% |
| 9/15–16 | 2% | 50% | **48%** |
| 10/27–28 | 10% | 45% | **45%** |
| 12/8–9 | 20% | **55%** | 25% |
```
```
📋 This Week’s Schedule (Beijing Time)
| Time | Event | Level |
| ------------ | ------------------------------ | ------ |
| Monday 21:00 | Waller remarks / Barr CDBA dialogue | 🟡 Medium |
| Monday 22:00 | Bowman testimony | 🔴 ↑ See “Must Watch Today” |
| Tuesday 04:00 | CCAR/DFAST stress test | 🔴 ↑ See “Must Watch Today” |
| Thursday 02:00 | SCOOS credit officer survey | 🟡 Medium |
| 07/08 02:00 | FOMC June meeting minutes | 🔴 High |
```
```
🔴 Last Decision Highlights (still effective)
· FOMC unanimously holds 3.50–3.75%
· Dot plot: 2026 terminal median 3.8%, ↑40bp implying one more rate hike within the year
· PCE/GDP/inflation wording adjustments: remove “inflation gradually cooling”
```
```
ℹ️ The 30-year mortgage rate has risen to 7.18%; the market is re-pricing an additional rate hike within the year for the Warsh era.
```
```
⏰ August 12 09:30 (CST) · Goose Quant AI · For reference only
```
📊 Crypto Market Snapshot (August 12, 09:30 CST)
```
| Asset | Price | 24h |
| ---- | --------- | ------ |
| BTC | $63,742.01 | -0.51% |
| ETH | $1,882.44 | — |
| SOL | $76.35 | — |
| BNB | $616.48 | — |
| DOGE | $0.07235 | — |
BTC 24h trading volume $789.4M
```
📰 GOOSE QUANT AI Morning News · August 12
Warsh Era’s first inaugural week of the central bank: **Dove vs. Eagle duel** — Bowman testifies + CCAR stress testing both on the same day.
```
```
🎯 Must Watch Today
1. 22:00 Bowman Congressional testimony — reiterates banks’ capital/regulatory definitions; hawkish-negative risk for risk assets
2. Next day 04:00 CCAR/DFAST stress test — large banks’ expected CET1 at 11–12%; breach-level shock to bank stocks
3. All day 6/19 deferred week report re-issue (including 7 reports such as H.4.1 etc.) — temporary disruption to U.S. Treasuries and dollar liquidity
```
```
📊 Key Numbers
Interest rate 3.50–3.75% · Maintain ~95% on 7/28–29 · Terminal median 3.8% (↑40bp, includes 1 additional rate hike)
```
```
🪙 Crypto Perspective
SEP terminal rate revised upward + Warsh leaning hawkish = DXY and U.S. Treasury yields remain firm; BTC/ETH face upward pressure.
Watch Bowman’s remarks at 22:00. If he emphasizes “capital adequacy/anti-inflation,” avoid chasing longs in the short term and wait for a pullback.
```
```
—————————— For detailed reference below ——————————
```
```
💹 Full-year Probability Matrix (CME Futures + SEP Implied)
| FOMC | -25 | Hold | +25 |
| ----------- | ----- | ------ | ----- |
| 7/28–29 | 3% | **95%** | 2% |
| 9/15–16 | 2% | 50% | **48%** |
| 10/27–28 | 10% | 45% | **45%** |
| 12/8–9 | 20% | **55%** | 25% |
```
```
📋 This Week’s Schedule (Beijing Time)
| Time | Event | Level |
| ------------ | ------------------------------ | ------ |
| Monday 21:00 | Waller remarks / Barr CDBA dialogue | 🟡 Medium |
| Monday 22:00 | Bowman testimony | 🔴 ↑ See “Must Watch Today” |
| Tuesday 04:00 | CCAR/DFAST stress test | 🔴 ↑ See “Must Watch Today” |
| Thursday 02:00 | SCOOS credit officer survey | 🟡 Medium |
| 07/08 02:00 | FOMC June meeting minutes | 🔴 High |
```
```
🔴 Last Decision Highlights (still effective)
· FOMC unanimously holds 3.50–3.75%
· Dot plot: 2026 terminal median 3.8%, ↑40bp implying one more rate hike within the year
· PCE/GDP/inflation wording adjustments: remove “inflation gradually cooling”
```
```
ℹ️ The 30-year mortgage rate has risen to 7.18%; the market is re-pricing an additional rate hike within the year for the Warsh era.
```
```
⏰ August 12 09:30 (CST) · Goose Quant AI · For reference only
```
📊 Crypto Market Snapshot (August 12, 09:30 CST)
```
| Asset | Price | 24h |
| ---- | --------- | ------ |
| BTC | $63,742.01 | -0.51% |
| ETH | $1,882.44 | — |
| SOL | $76.35 | — |
| BNB | $616.48 | — |
| DOGE | $0.07235 | — |
BTC 24h trading volume $789.4M
```