First calm down a bit from the small excitement of receiving tips in the square, and continue to watch the market calmly.
Last night's market, to be honest, was a bit sigh-inducing.
Overall, it's just—being pressed down hard 📉
The daytime liquidity is almost negligible,
The real volatility is all saved for the night
The trend has also strictly delivered
The second highest probability path given yesterday:
There was no decent rebound before the US stock market opened →
Directly down after the opening, continuing to clear the long positions that have been hit this week, 'wawa crying' 😭
The long positions' stop-loss at 88,200 below were not effectively broken, not even touched, just over two hundred points away, right after the liquidation was completed, the price was pulled back, rebounding to the 90,000 line at the highest 🔄
So if you have a short position opened yesterday, here it has returned to the small profit-taking tips I shared before, details can be found in Tuesday's analysis article for those interested.
Back to the point
1. Today's current price market analysis
1️⃣ Current market commonality state
Current BTC price: ≈ 89200 around
4H level:
Still in a weak oscillation digestion phase, but the biggest difference from yesterday is:
Below bull liquidation has been repeatedly tested 🔽
Above short liquidation is obviously approaching the current price 🔼
👉 Indicates that the market has already shifted from
"Unidirectional defense" → Entering the "two-way liquidation game area" ⚔️ Can be understood as the bull-bear game will be very intense
2. Core changes in liquidation structure
From coinglass data multi-cycle liquidation chart, it can be clearly seen 👀
🔴 Short Max Pain Point
12h: ≈ 89,950 – 90,000
24h: ≈ 90,880 – 90,900
48h: ≈ 90,900
👉 In the range of 0.9% – 1.9% above,
There is a continuous, dense multi-level short liquidation pool
🟢 Bull Max Pain Point
12h: ≈ 88,200 – 88,300
24h: ≈ 88,300
48h: ≈ 88,200
👉 Below 1.0% – 1.2% still has bull liquidation, but has been pre-liquidated multiple times,
Marginal strength has obviously declined 📉.
3. Synthesis conclusion of structure + liquidation
The current position of BTC is not about discussing 'whether to reverse', but the more realistic question is:
👉 Which side to clear first? Can it hold after clearing?
Below liquidation:
Still there, but already not clean 🧹
Above liquidation:
Concentrated, dense, not yet triggered ⏳
👉 Therefore, the priority of testing upward for short liquidation has already exceeded continuing to step down on bulls.
4. Structural implications of VWAP / EMA
Current price still repeatedly tests below VWAP
If it is just:
Piercing VWAP → immediately falls back (false breakout)
👉 Still belongs to liquidation repair
Only when standing above VWAP and 15min pullback does not break
👉 Only then can it be considered entering
"Structural repair → Possible strengthening"
Thus entering the formal bull phase 🚀
2. BTC current key structural area (execution level)
🔴 Key area above (today's 'main stage')
P1｜89,950 – 90,050
12h Short Max Pain Point
Easily triggered by the first wave surge ⚡
P2｜90,850 – 90,950
24h / 48h Short Max Pain Point
The area most easily magnified by US stocks 📈
🟢 Key area below
S1｜88,200 – 88,300
Overlap area of multi-cycle bull max pain
If stepped on again, must observe:
👉 Whether 'after stepping back it returns' 👣
S2｜Below 87,800
Once lost,
Represents today's structure failure ❌,
Re-entering a bearish extension.
3. BTC today's US stock opening high probability path deduction (trader's perspective)
The following is path deduction, for reference only
Path one｜Highest probability ⭐
US stocks pre-market start to test upwards →
US stock opening magnifies 'liquidation surge'
Then a high-level divergence occurs
Because it currently meets:
Above short liquidation: near and dense
Below bull liquidation: has been consumed multiple times
Price position: upper part of the oscillation area
Key divergence point
If it breaks through to around 90.9k to complete liquidation
Only look 👀:
Whether 15min closes above 90.9k
Whether the pullback does not break 90.0k
Whether VWAP has been completely reclaimed and moved up
Personal guess that after liquidation, it will likely fall back for confirmation 🔄
Typical performance:
Upper shadow
Decreasing transaction volume
Fallback target: 90,000 / 89,500
⚠️ This is not a reversal to bearish, just that what needs to be cleared has been cleared, but it does not necessarily lead to a trend, then begins the weekend sideways fluctuation
Path two｜Second high probability
Before US stocks, it does not pull → US stock opening compensates for the short liquidation below (refer to last night's plot)
Conditions for establishment:
BTC stuck for a long time in US stocks at 89,100 – 89,300
Unable to effectively lift
Transaction continues to shrink 😴
👉 Indicates not preparing to push up for liquidation, continues to push down on bulls.
After US stock opening: first wave pull, directly fast down step
Target: 88,300 (yesterday's stop loss)
If volume increases, it may reach 88,000
Directly completes the replenishment task-type drop
After liquidation, it also enters the weekend's fluctuation.
Path three｜Extreme low probability (bulls have arrived)
Structural repair completed before US stocks → US stocks drive trend
Must meet before US stocks:
BTC stands firm at 90,950
15min pullback does not break
VWAP clearly moves up
Transactions are not single explosive volume
👉 Only in this way can US stocks
Push the market from 'liquidation rebound'
Into 'bull trend repair'.
Otherwise, all surges lean towards false breakout 🚫.
4. Before US stocks, you only need to focus on three things 👇:
1. Is the price oscillating above 89.2k, or actively pushing towards around 90k
2. Before US stocks, did it touch 90k in advance
3. VWAP continues to suppress, or starts to move up
These three points will be excluded directly before US stock opening
Directly exclude 1–2 paths for reference.
Today mainly looking at:
Where liquidation occurs, to what extent.
Still the same statement, US stocks will not give direction,
Only magnify the direction that is already prepared 🔍.
Friendly reminder:
It is not recommended to hold overnight positions on Friday night.
On one hand, long-term sideways movement is prone to unexpected volatility risks;
On the other hand, it can also easily affect the rest rhythm.
Wishing everyone a happy weekend in advance 🍻
The above content is only market structure and liquidation behavior trading observations, and does not constitute any form of investment advice.
All deductions are based on current data and market assumptions, and may fail at any time.
All analyses in the article are for reference only,
Please research and make independent decisions (DYOR).$BTC
