My model and I analyze SMCI’s earnings report $SMCI .
Once these numbers came out, the nature of SMCI’s earnings report has changed. Let’s set aside how the stock price might be “gamed” for a moment—just from the fundamentals, I’m moving it from the A/B tier discussion I had before directly up to an “S-tier / strong beat of expectations.”
The most critical point isn’t the EPS of $1.62, but the FY27 revenue guidance of $65–72B.
Let’s break it down item by item:
Metric Actual/Guidance Market Expectation Judgment
Q4 Revenue $11.1B $11.55B 🔴 ~4% low
Q4 EPS $1.62 ~$0.62–0.94 🟢🟢 Massive beat
Q4 Adj. GM 17.6% Company previously 15–17% 🟢 Beats the upper end of guidance
Q1 FY27 Revenue $14.5–15.5B — 🟢 Strong
FY27 Revenue $65–72B $52.5B 🟢🟢 The core upside catalyst
Q1 FY27 Adj. EPS $1.01–1.10 — 🟢
What the market had been expecting roughly was Q4 revenue of $11.55B and adjusted EPS around $0.94—so this set of data does mean profits are far beyond expectations, while revenue is slightly below expectations.
The most important thing: FY27 $65–72B.
This number is extremely key.
What the market had before:
FY27 Revenue ≈ $52.5B
Now the company:
$65–72B
Midpoint:
$68.5B
Compared with $52.5B:
+30.5%
This is no longer a “modest upward revision.”
This is:
The company is directly telling the market that the scale of its FY27 business could be about 30% higher than what Wall Street’s current models assume.
And this finally matches something you previously told me:
Q4 new orders > $60B
A complete closed loop has formed.
More importantly, Q1 already validates it:
FY27 Q1:
$14.5–15.5B
Midpoint:
$15B
If FY27 ultimately reaches $68.5B, then Q1 would be only about 22%.
That means the company isn’t saying:
“Let’s just get a big push in Q4.”
Instead, it’s telling the market:
“The entire FY27 year is going to have a very high revenue run-rate.”
Then look at gross margin.
This is the truly impressive part today.
The guidance you gave me earlier:
Q4 GM 15–17%
Actual:
17.6%
So that means:
Not only did it meet guidance—it also surpassed the upper end.
This is very important.
Because our biggest prior question was whether:
Are the 15–17% margins just a one-time customer/product mix effect?
Now at least for Q4, the answer is:
The actual is even better than the guidance.
Once these numbers came out, the nature of SMCI’s earnings report has changed. Let’s set aside how the stock price might be “gamed” for a moment—just from the fundamentals, I’m moving it from the A/B tier discussion I had before directly up to an “S-tier / strong beat of expectations.”
The most critical point isn’t the EPS of $1.62, but the FY27 revenue guidance of $65–72B.
Let’s break it down item by item:
Metric Actual/Guidance Market Expectation Judgment
Q4 Revenue $11.1B $11.55B 🔴 ~4% low
Q4 EPS $1.62 ~$0.62–0.94 🟢🟢 Massive beat
Q4 Adj. GM 17.6% Company previously 15–17% 🟢 Beats the upper end of guidance
Q1 FY27 Revenue $14.5–15.5B — 🟢 Strong
FY27 Revenue $65–72B $52.5B 🟢🟢 The core upside catalyst
Q1 FY27 Adj. EPS $1.01–1.10 — 🟢
What the market had been expecting roughly was Q4 revenue of $11.55B and adjusted EPS around $0.94—so this set of data does mean profits are far beyond expectations, while revenue is slightly below expectations.
The most important thing: FY27 $65–72B.
This number is extremely key.
What the market had before:
FY27 Revenue ≈ $52.5B
Now the company:
$65–72B
Midpoint:
$68.5B
Compared with $52.5B:
+30.5%
This is no longer a “modest upward revision.”
This is:
The company is directly telling the market that the scale of its FY27 business could be about 30% higher than what Wall Street’s current models assume.
And this finally matches something you previously told me:
Q4 new orders > $60B
A complete closed loop has formed.
More importantly, Q1 already validates it:
FY27 Q1:
$14.5–15.5B
Midpoint:
$15B
If FY27 ultimately reaches $68.5B, then Q1 would be only about 22%.
That means the company isn’t saying:
“Let’s just get a big push in Q4.”
Instead, it’s telling the market:
“The entire FY27 year is going to have a very high revenue run-rate.”
Then look at gross margin.
This is the truly impressive part today.
The guidance you gave me earlier:
Q4 GM 15–17%
Actual:
17.6%
So that means:
Not only did it meet guidance—it also surpassed the upper end.
This is very important.
Because our biggest prior question was whether:
Are the 15–17% margins just a one-time customer/product mix effect?
Now at least for Q4, the answer is:
The actual is even better than the guidance.