ETH is currently around 1865u, down another piece from the previous post’s 1921. I’m not in a rush to take a side here, but the biggest change is that short-term funds are starting to not cooperate.
The good news is actually quite a lot. Russia has brought BTC/ETH/USDT back to legitimate exchanges for trading, whales have been repeatedly accumulating coins and then directly staking them, and news and social sentiment are nearly one-sidedly bullish. But the problem is—price hasn’t really responded. Even if the bullish calls are loud, spot large orders have seen net outflows for nearly three hours, twelve consecutive K-lines closed red one after another, and real money is leaving.
There’s also a slight risk on the futures side. Open interest is rising, but price is moving downward—this is usually a sign of crowded positioning. The buy book is indeed thicker than the sell book, but that’s only shallow absorption, not a decisive bid.
In plain terms, this is a tug-of-war of “sentiment is hot, but money is withdrawing.” The good news provides a lower-bound support, while short-term funds keep dragging things down; the two offset each other.
So I won’t chase longs here, and I’m not in a hurry to short either. Let’s first wait for funds to make a choice. If big orders turn positive and price reclaims above the moving average lines, then that means real money has returned. If it continues to break down and invalidate key levels, then we can look for opportunities after the pressure has been released. For now, observe.
#eth $ETH
The good news is actually quite a lot. Russia has brought BTC/ETH/USDT back to legitimate exchanges for trading, whales have been repeatedly accumulating coins and then directly staking them, and news and social sentiment are nearly one-sidedly bullish. But the problem is—price hasn’t really responded. Even if the bullish calls are loud, spot large orders have seen net outflows for nearly three hours, twelve consecutive K-lines closed red one after another, and real money is leaving.
There’s also a slight risk on the futures side. Open interest is rising, but price is moving downward—this is usually a sign of crowded positioning. The buy book is indeed thicker than the sell book, but that’s only shallow absorption, not a decisive bid.
In plain terms, this is a tug-of-war of “sentiment is hot, but money is withdrawing.” The good news provides a lower-bound support, while short-term funds keep dragging things down; the two offset each other.
So I won’t chase longs here, and I’m not in a hurry to short either. Let’s first wait for funds to make a choice. If big orders turn positive and price reclaims above the moving average lines, then that means real money has returned. If it continues to break down and invalidate key levels, then we can look for opportunities after the pressure has been released. For now, observe.
#eth $ETH