After last week’s jobs report came in hot and blew everything up, this week it’s CPI’s turn.

The jobs report is about “whether there’s work to be done,” while CPI is about “whether prices have gone up.” The Fed has only these two things. And its concern about inflation far outweighs its concern about employment—BofA even said that CPI comes ahead of the jobs report in its priority.

J.P. Morgan has already done the math: that number tomorrow night could cause the S&P 500 to surge or plunge by 2% within a single day. Don’t think 2% is small—the S&P 500’s market cap is huge; 2% is on the order of trillions of dollars—essentially the market value of an entire A-share market, moved around overnight for you.

Why so nervous this time? Because the market is poised right on a turning point. CME data now puts the probability of a September rate hike at 51.2%. The jobs report dragged expectations down—if CPI comes in hot, a rate hike is basically a sure thing. Mortgages, credit cards, and wealth management products will all be adjusted accordingly.

There are five possible scenarios for the vote outside: a moderate pullback is the most likely (40%), with the stock market edging up slightly. A result slightly above or slightly below expectations—each about 25%—would mean a small drop or a small rise. As for going to the moon or soaring beyond expectations, each at 5%—extremely unlikely, but with very high odds.

A common mistake many people make: don’t look at that "year-over-year how much it rose" figure in the CPI. The number after stripping out oil prices and food prices is the so-called core CPI. Food and oil prices swing too much—one uptick, one downtick, and the data gets "contaminated." It’s like dropping the highest and lowest scores when calculating an average—the result reflects the real level. Just remember the four words: "core CPI."

Tomorrow night is just an appetizer. On Thursday comes the PPI, and on Friday retail sales—three punches in a week, all crucial data for inflation and consumption. This week, traders worldwide are going to have a hard time sleeping.

Also, one more thing in passing:

Oil prices jumped 5% overnight. On the Strait of Hormuz side, Iran proposed five conditions. The U.S. said it’s fine—everything is under control. But the data can’t lie: yesterday only 6 oil tankers passed the strait, whereas normally there are dozens a day.

Gold broke through 4400 and set a new all-time high again. Geopolitical hedging layered with global central banks’ nonstop buying for 21 straight months is pushing the price up. In the short term, gold doesn’t look bearish—but it’s been climbing too fast. Anyone who wants to chase the rally should weigh it carefully.

Nvidia is teaming up with six major institutions to raise $500 billion for AI infrastructure. Sounds bullish, yet the market fell—everyone’s worried it’s a loop of financing that steps on its own foot: borrow money to build buildings, then rent them back to yourself. Money that isn’t stupid won’t bankroll that.

Tomorrow at 8:30 p.m.—will it be above expectations or below expectations? Let’s chat in the comments.#美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 #参议院推迟CLARITY法案投票至9月 #MoneyGram将现金加密兑换扩展至Solana $NVDAB