Damn, $VELVET —this week it surged fast and hard, and the price doubled or more, but when I glance at the current order book, the big orders net inflow—nothing, absolutely zero; not a real trade entered in five candlesticks. Translate this: this whole move was a leveraged行情 raised at an index-level scale; the futures open interest doubled within seven hours. The aggressive buy side barely managed to push over the sell side, the basis is still stuck negative, and spot just doesn’t recognize it at all. The way the “dog” group thinks is laid out clearly: the project team is secretly dumping too. If you rush in now, you’re just the bag-holder.