A-shares return to familiar rhythm: theme frenzy and weight adjustment coexist, analysis of core logic and operation strategy

The A-share market has once again returned to a familiar operating rhythm, with theme stocks ushering in a frenzy, while heavyweight stocks continue to adjust, showing a significant polarization. The root cause is essentially the suppression of the index through weight to guide a slow bull trend, while relying on theme speculation to activate market sentiment, which is also a core feature of the current spring market. In response to the current market, here are a few core viewpoints to share:

1. Essence of the market: style differentiation under slow bull guidance, technology growth is the main line

The A-share market remains a familiar theme bull market pattern, with heavyweight blue chips continuously adjusting, and thematic concepts taking turns to strengthen. Investors focused on theme speculation are reaping rewards, while those holding blue chips feel the strain, and this differentiation is not surprising.

Currently, market liquidity is plentiful and sentiment is active, with funds naturally favoring thematic concepts that possess elasticity. Only when risk-averse sentiment rises will theme speculation converge, which is a distinct characteristic of the spring market. It has been repeatedly emphasized that the core of the spring market lies in technology growth, with every round of market sentiment uplift driven by themes, while the regulatory demand of the slow bull trend determines that funds will not concentrate on pushing up the index, but rather focus on theme speculation, and this trend will continue.

2. Theme speculation: grasping the rhythm is key, early participation is preferable to chasing highs

The strong rise of themes will ultimately meet with adjustments, which is an inevitable rule of theme speculation, but the timing of the adjustment cannot be accurately predicted. When facing thematic trends, the core of participation lies in rhythm control: not participating makes it difficult to grasp the market's profit effect, while participation requires "early belief and early layout," and one must not buy high after themes have rotated.

The so-called "believe in the power of belief" does not mean blindly chasing after high prices, but rather timely layout after recognizing the main line, avoiding becoming the last person to take over. During the previous market cooling phase, I consistently emphasized that the trend had not changed; the adjustment was merely a turnover of long and short positions, and the chips settled after the washout would eventually push the market to a new level. Now that the commercial aerospace main line has returned and the profit effect has restarted, although the index no longer sees consecutive gains, this oscillating upward rhythm is, instead, more sustainable.

3. Market attitude: firmly bullish, focusing on themes over indices is core

Different investors have varying feelings about the current market; some are optimistic while others feel aggressive. However, the current market is completely in line with the ideal trend of a slow bull: over three thousand stocks are rising, the index is accurately controlled, weight suppresses the index but theme sentiment remains unaffected, and there is no reason to be bearish in such a pattern.

The main line of the market has always been clear, with commercial aerospace starting the second wave of the market after the first round of big rises and corrections. Although the rhythm has slowed, core trend stocks are still expected to create new highs; AI applications and other technology main lines also follow a similar operating rhythm. Grasping this essence will give operations a stronger sense of direction. The previous rapid rise model of the index with 17 consecutive gains has been regulated, transitioning into a phase of "weights suppressing the index, themes creating markets." This model has been recognized, and we should respect the trend and remain firmly bullish.

The index has repeatedly dipped below 4100 points, and themes have collectively adjusted, providing a good opportunity for low absorption. The value of chips below 4100 points, which has been reiterated previously, has been validated by the market. The rhythm and trend of market operations are within expectations, and the core bullish viewpoint has never changed, naturally firming confidence in holding stocks.

4. Today's market: healthy volume and price, focusing on individual stocks over the index remains key

Today's A-share trading volume has moderately increased, presenting a healthy volume-price relationship of "slight index rise, steadily expanding volume." Compared to sudden surges, this gentle increase in volume indicates more rational follow-up and leveraged funds, leading to stronger continuity in the rise.

The technology main line continues to bloom in various aspects, with commercial aerospace, AI applications, semiconductors, robotics, CPO optical modules, controlled nuclear fusion, brain-machine interfaces, and other themes being actively involved in turns. There is no need to make a singular bet; simply selecting directional rotations will suffice. In response to such trends, the core is to dare to layout during corrections, rather than chase after the upward trend is established. Only by having chips in hand can one seize rotation opportunities.

In today's early trading session, the index experienced two concentrated fund sell-offs, likely a weight adjustment behavior. However, the yellow line continued to rise, indicating that only the weight was suppressed, not the theme speculation. Thus, focusing on themes rather than the index remains the current core operational thought.

5. Core Q&A: Commercial aerospace has become the main line, not merely theme speculation

Many investors are puzzled as to why commercial aerospace, lacking immediate performance, can become the annual core main line. Its logic does not merely stay at the thematic level but has multiple hardcore supports:

1. National power competition level: the competition between China and the United States in the commercial aerospace field is already obvious, and the strategic value of this track is self-evident;

2. Funding level: commercial aerospace has become the core direction for major funds in A-shares, with high fund immersion, making it unlikely to withdraw easily;

3. Industrial level: as the core track of technological innovation, the current performance gap in commercial aerospace precisely represents future growth space. Once the industry is implemented on a large scale, performance realization will follow naturally.

It needs to be emphasized that this does not encourage everyone to participate blindly. Many investors have already missed the opportunity for low absorption. Sharing this logic aims to help everyone understand the underlying support behind the main line, rather than merely following the trend.