after gold set an ATH around $4,888/oz, the overall trend remains bullish, but the market is entering a “super emotional” zone as it approaches the psychological level of $5,000.
3 important points this morning:
▪ $5,000 is a very strong liquidity zone → likely to have spikes up/down (stop hunt).
▪ High volatility ⇒ today is not suitable for FOMO, prioritize waiting for a clear setup.
▪ Reuters reports that Goldman Sachs raises its forecast for the end of 2026 to $5,400/oz → strengthens the bullish mid-term narrative.
Conclusion: The trend is still up, but intraday it is likely to “shake out” before continuing.
INTRADAY PLAN XAU/USD (2 scenarios)
Note: high volatility ⇒ reduce lot size, trade according to the scenario.
Scenario 1 (priority): BUY THE DIP according to the trend ✅
Entry: Buy zone 4,935 – 4,940
SL: 4,906
TP:
▪ TP1: 4,978 (RR 1:1.3)
▪ TP2: 5,000-5,003 (RR 1:2)
Scenario 2: BREAKOUT $5,000 (only enter upon confirmation) 🔥
Condition: M15/H1 candle closes above 5,005 (avoid fake break 5k)
Entry: Buy when retesting 4,990 – 4,995
SL: 4,972
TP:
▪ TP1: 5,035 (RR 1:2)
▪ TP2: 5,080 (RR 1:4)
To be safe, take 50% of TP1, move SL to entry, keep the remaining part to TP2.
