$BTC With about 15 hours left until the U.S. July CPI, the common expectation in the market is for year-over-year to fall from 3.5% to 3.4%, but the “if it’s cool, it goes up” script still hasn’t been followed up by enough contract funding.
The BLS will release the data on August 12 at 20:30 (Hong Kong time). The Cleveland Fed’s latest nowcast is 3.42% YoY and 0.09% MoM, which is just 0.02 percentage points away from the baseline visible in the market; the prediction gap is very small. BTC is around $64,327, only about 0.16% above its daily MA20. The USD-M open-interest value has decreased by about 1.42% over the past 24 hours, and the funding rate is about 0.0071%. The market looks more like it’s deleveraging ahead of the event rather than positioning in advance for a direction.
In the last eight CPI releases, within four hours after the release BTC went up six times, but the sample size is only eight, and the outcomes range from -1.57% to +3.05%. With the current forecast gap close to zero and positions still shrinking, the historical edge is not enough to cover fees and slippage—so no trade. If the data is above 3.4%, we check whether the price decline coincides with an expansion of positions; if it’s not above 3.4%, we check whether a price increase coincides with an expansion of positions. If they move in different directions, we wait longer.
#BTC #CPI # macro event
The BLS will release the data on August 12 at 20:30 (Hong Kong time). The Cleveland Fed’s latest nowcast is 3.42% YoY and 0.09% MoM, which is just 0.02 percentage points away from the baseline visible in the market; the prediction gap is very small. BTC is around $64,327, only about 0.16% above its daily MA20. The USD-M open-interest value has decreased by about 1.42% over the past 24 hours, and the funding rate is about 0.0071%. The market looks more like it’s deleveraging ahead of the event rather than positioning in advance for a direction.
In the last eight CPI releases, within four hours after the release BTC went up six times, but the sample size is only eight, and the outcomes range from -1.57% to +3.05%. With the current forecast gap close to zero and positions still shrinking, the historical edge is not enough to cover fees and slippage—so no trade. If the data is above 3.4%, we check whether the price decline coincides with an expansion of positions; if it’s not above 3.4%, we check whether a price increase coincides with an expansion of positions. If they move in different directions, we wait longer.
#BTC #CPI # macro event