August 11 evening report | On the eve of CPI, BTC breaks below 64K; five straight days of ETF inflows come to an end; the US and Iran are still bickering again.

First, a probability judgment: I think the downside probability is slightly higher. CPI comes out tomorrow night, ETF trading is starting to run, and the US-Iran issue has also gotten stuck again—three things stacking together, bulls don’t dare to move.

BTC is currently around 63,900-64,000. After failing to push up to 65,300 during the day, it then slid all the way down, with the low hitting around 63,800. The intraday decline is about 1.4%, and volatility has dropped to a yearly low.

ETH near 1,870-1,880, down about 2%, and weakening in parallel. SOL around 75.7, down about 1.6%, showing relative resilience.

In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the entire network reached $137 million, with long positions accounting for the majority.

Three things are driving today’s tape:

First, the U.S. and Iran are stuck again. Oil prices rebound, and inflation expectations heat up.

Monday was a typical “U.S.-Iran saber-rattling” market—version 2.0. Trump demanded that Iran compensate the U.S. for military conflict losses from the past five months; Iran, in turn, also demanded compensation from the U.S. Iran’s foreign minister Araqchi said: as long as the U.S. continues to violate the June memorandum, restarting negotiations is impossible. Iran also adjusted its military leadership, and the outlook for talks looks dim.

Oil prices blew up directly. Brent closed up 5% at $87.72 per barrel, and WTI rose 5.1% to $82.13 per barrel. U.S. strategic petroleum reserves crude inventory fell to the lowest level since January 1983.

But later in the evening, a new variable emerged—Pakistan’s defense minister released a signal saying the U.S. and Iran are “close to some kind of arrangement,” and oil prices plunged by $1.24 within five minutes. Qatar also said talks between Oman and Iran have entered an advanced stage.

Good news only counts after the agreement is signed. Until then, oil prices just chop back and forth.

Second, the ETF five-day streak of inflows comes to an end—yesterday alone saw outflows of 144 million.

On Monday, BTC spot ETF net outflows totaled $144.6 million, ending five straight trading days of net inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT saw $53.6 million, Fidelity’s FBTC saw $40.3 million, and Grayscale’s GBTC saw $52 million in outflows. Grayscale’s mini BTC, however, still recorded inflows of $37.1 million—far too little to matter. ETH ETFs also saw net outflows of $14.6 million.

Last week just created the biggest weekly net inflow since April—five straight days of inflows, and a large chunk was吐 back after just one day. Ahead of CPI, institutions chose to lock in gains and leave; the wait-and-see mood is strong.

Third, CPI comes out at 8:30 tomorrow night, and the market is holding its breath.

This is the biggest variable of the week. The market has moved forward into a pre-CPI inflation data tug-of-war, and risk appetite has clearly narrowed. U.S. Federal Reserve officials again signaled slightly hawkish views, emphasizing that if inflation rebounds, further tightening can’t be ruled out. CME shows the probability of a September rate hike is about 44.6%, while keeping interest rates unchanged is around 54.2%.

Good data (below expectations) → rate-cut expectations heat up → BTC rebounds; bad data (above expectations) → rate-hike expectations heat up → BTC faces more pressure. We’ll know more tomorrow night.

Traditional markets: U.S. stocks edged lower; chip stocks keep collapsing.

U.S. stocks on Monday ended slightly lower across the three major indexes: the Dow fell 0.11% to 53,975.98; the Nasdaq dropped 0.32% to 26,605.35; and the S&P 500 slipped 0.06% to 7,753.11. Nvidia fell nearly 3%, Apple dropped 1.5%, and Intel fell 4%.

Gold: COMEX gold futures spiked as high as $4,487 in the early session. With a triple boost—geopolitical deadlock + inflation worries + rate-cut expectations—funds flowed into gold.

Technical snapshot:

BTC: market sentiment shifted from last week’s optimism to caution before the CPI, and nobody dared to bet ahead of it. On the 4-hour timeframe, after failing to break through 65,300 today, price has kept sliding and dropped below 64,000. On the 1-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands opening downward has confirmed the pattern. The prior high-level consolidation by the bulls has been broken. Near-term moving averages turn downward and form overhead pressure; buy support during the pullback is weak. The first hurdle overhead is 64,500–65,000 (the prior consolidation base plus dual pressure from the Bollinger midline). Only a breakout can ease the downward pressure. Support below is 63,500–63,800; if it can’t hold, watch 63,000 and even 62,500. The bigger structure is weak—until CPI lands, it’s likely to keep trading with shrinking volume and range-bound action.

ETH: synchronized weakness, sliding to around 1,870 and underperforming BTC. After topping out at 1,939 on a 4-hour basis, bullish momentum quickly fizzled out; a volume expansion at the highs turned into a selloff. 【Resistance is the 1,900–1,920 zone; support is the 1,840–1,850 area.】

SOL: relatively resilient, around 75.7, down about 1.6%.【Resistance is 77–78 above; support is 75–75.5 below.】

What to watch at 8:30 tomorrow night:

U.S. July CPI data. This is the biggest variable of the week. Earlier, weaker-than-expected jobs data led the market to expect rate cuts, but if CPI comes in above expectations, rate-cut expectations may cool again. Only if inflation data is moderate do we have a chance to bring fresh rebound momentum to the broader market. Before CPI is released, the market will likely continue to trade with shrinking volume and range-bound action.

In one sentence:

After BTC failed at 65,300 and then broke below 64K, the five-day ETF inflow streak ended—144 million was run away. The U.S.-Iran standoff is stuck again, and oil prices rebounded—so short-term pressure hasn’t been fully released. CPI is due out at 8:30 tomorrow night; don’t bet on direction before it lands. If 64,000 can’t hold, watch 63,500 and possibly 63,000.

Respect the market—tell the truth. Let’s chat in the comments. See you at 9:25 tomorrow morning.