⭐SPCX, don’t chase this rebound—set up short positions.
At the $150 level, there’s a concentrated zone of prior holdings, plus multiple tests that it failed to break through. Technically, it’s a valid supply area. My plan is to build short positions in batches between $140 and $150!
The core question is: will SPCX actually rebound or not?
First layer (technical): From around $100, it surged up by more than 40% in a short time. That kind of speed is inherently unsustainable. As trading crowding increases, once the buying momentum fades, you don’t even need a bad catalyst—profit-taking alone can be enough to “deal it a blow.” It typically comes with a pullback to the moving average or the prior low, which is a classic pattern.
Second layer (confluence): There’s overlapping resistance. Not only is $150 a technical supply zone, it’s also a sensitive valuation band. With these two forces reinforcing each other, shorts have a natural advantage in this range.
Third layer (structural issue people easily overlook): Restricted shares are set to be released—there’s real, concrete sell pressure. Early shareholders had extremely low costs. After the unlock, they’ll go collect the cash. Over the coming months, the release schedule is very frequent. You can’t lift the stock just on belief.
The company’s in a good industry and the management is reliable, but a great company and a great entry point are two different things. In the first half after going public, the structural overhang from unlock/lockup sales is right there—downward pressure is very likely. Only after the market thoroughly “washes out” the chip distribution will it enter the left-side, slow accumulation phase.
At this price and timing, the risk-reward of shorting is far better than longing
$SPCX #SPCX九亿股解锁压力
At the $150 level, there’s a concentrated zone of prior holdings, plus multiple tests that it failed to break through. Technically, it’s a valid supply area. My plan is to build short positions in batches between $140 and $150!
The core question is: will SPCX actually rebound or not?
First layer (technical): From around $100, it surged up by more than 40% in a short time. That kind of speed is inherently unsustainable. As trading crowding increases, once the buying momentum fades, you don’t even need a bad catalyst—profit-taking alone can be enough to “deal it a blow.” It typically comes with a pullback to the moving average or the prior low, which is a classic pattern.
Second layer (confluence): There’s overlapping resistance. Not only is $150 a technical supply zone, it’s also a sensitive valuation band. With these two forces reinforcing each other, shorts have a natural advantage in this range.
Third layer (structural issue people easily overlook): Restricted shares are set to be released—there’s real, concrete sell pressure. Early shareholders had extremely low costs. After the unlock, they’ll go collect the cash. Over the coming months, the release schedule is very frequent. You can’t lift the stock just on belief.
The company’s in a good industry and the management is reliable, but a great company and a great entry point are two different things. In the first half after going public, the structural overhang from unlock/lockup sales is right there—downward pressure is very likely. Only after the market thoroughly “washes out” the chip distribution will it enter the left-side, slow accumulation phase.
At this price and timing, the risk-reward of shorting is far better than longing
$SPCX #SPCX九亿股解锁压力