Bitcoin slipped to near $64,000 on Tuesday — down over 1% on the day but marginally positive on the week — after a fourth consecutive failed attempt to hold above $65,000, reaching a 24-hour high just above $65,300 before sliding through the Asian afternoon. Ether was the weakest major, down over 2% to $1,878. XRP fell almost 2% to $1.01 and is down almost 6% on the week — the worst major by a significant margin. Solana eased under 1% to $76 but leads the week at +3%. BNB slipped to $600, holding a 2% weekly gain. Three majors bucked the trend: HYPE rose almost 2% to $55, Tron gained slightly to 33 cents, and Dogecoin was marginally higher at 7 cents. Brent crude held at $87.73 after jumping 5% on Monday when Trump made fresh demands on Iran and dimmed hopes of a Hormuz deal. Gold rose for a third consecutive session above $4,400. US 10-year Treasury yields rose 6 basis points on Monday to 4.71%. US CPI data arrives Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET — the most direct scheduled catalyst for whether the oil-driven inflation worry that is suppressing risk assets eases or intensifies.
Four Failed $65,000 Tests — FxPro's Kuptsikevich Reads Shorts Building, Not Profit-Taking
FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich's interpretation of the four-day $65,000 test is the most analytically useful framing of Bitcoin's current price behavior. The standard interpretation of repeated tests of a level without a breakout is that sellers are absorbing buying attempts — profit-taking by existing holders who purchased at lower prices. Kuptsikevich's reading is different and more constructive: the absence of selling into the $65,000 level — rather than sellers actively capping the price — suggests that what is being built above $65,000 is short positions, not supply from holders exiting.
The distinction matters for what happens next. If $65,000 is a level where profit-takers are selling, a breakout requires those sellers to exhaust their positions — a gradual absorption process. If $65,000 is a level where short sellers are accumulating positions, a breakout above it triggers short-covering — a rapid, self-reinforcing move as shorts are forced to buy to close positions. Kuptsikevich's "build-up of short positions well above this level" framing implies that a decisive break above $65,000 would be amplified by forced short covering rather than merely testing the next layer of seller supply.
The $70,000 Target — 200-Day Moving Average and the March-April Range
Kuptsikevich identified $70,000 as the next area to watch, with the 200-day moving average sitting nearby and clearing it representing a move above the range where buyers and sellers contested price through March and April. The $70,000 level has multiple simultaneous technical and analytical significances: it is a major round number psychological resistance, it aligns with the pre-correction consolidation zone from March-April 2026, it sits above the CryptoQuant STH realized price at $67,523 and the Bitfinex STH cost basis at $68,500, and it is the lower bound of the Deribit bull call spread cluster where $68,000 and $70,000 calls are currently dominating volume.
Kuptsikevich said clearing $70,000 would "shift sentiment meaningfully" — the specific threshold that converts the current fear-zone sentiment reading of 30 into something more constructive. The crypto sentiment index sitting at 30 — in the fear zone since mid-July with occasional dips toward extreme fear — is the psychological constraint that has prevented the $1.2 billion in whale accumulation and $865 million in five-session ETF inflows from translating into sustained price appreciation. A move through $70,000 and the 200-day MA would be the technical confirmation event that converts tactical buyers into convicted buyers — precisely the threshold Nexo's Kalchev identified when she said a decisive close above $65,000 was needed for recovery, except now the goalposts have been raised by four days of $65,000 failure to $70,000 as the sentiment-shifting level.
Oil at $87.73 — Trump's Iran Demands Reverse Monday's Oman Deal Optimism
Brent crude jumping 5% on Monday to $87.73 — reversing the Iran-Oman deal optimism that had lifted Bitcoin to $65,209 on Monday morning — is the most direct expression of the macro chain's resilience. Trump making fresh demands on Iran and dimming hopes of a Hormuz deal activated the same oil-up-yields-up-dollar-up-BTC-down chain that Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer identified as the "danger zone" mechanism. The 10-year yield rising 6 basis points on Monday to 4.71% — well above Timmer's 4.5% danger threshold — is the bond market's immediate translation of higher oil into higher inflation expectations and higher rate-hike probability.
For Wednesday's CPI print arriving at 8:30 a.m. ET, Brent at $87.73 is the most important input variable. Higher oil feeds directly into the CPI's energy component — fuel prices already running 15.7% above year-ago levels — and a CPI print that comes in above expectations on energy-driven inflation would validate the hawkish scenario where the September rate hike probability above 50% is maintained or increases. A below-expectations CPI print — if the June energy price decline relative to last year's elevated levels provides a base effect benefit — could reduce September hike odds despite current oil levels and provide Bitcoin with the macro relief that the Iran-Oman deal was supposed to deliver before Trump's Monday demands reversed that narrative.
ETF Flows — $865 Million Over Five Sessions, $91 Million Provisional Monday Outflow
The five-session $865 million inflow through August 7 — which included the $754 million week that was the best since April — reversed to a provisional $91 million outflow on Monday as the Iran deal reversal and oil jump reduced risk appetite. The $91 million outflow on a single session after $865 million over five sessions is a 10.5% single-day reversal of the week's institutional accumulation — significant in percentage terms but not catastrophic in absolute terms. It confirms that the ETF bid that has been building is not unconditional — it is sensitive to the same macro headwinds that capped Bitcoin at $65,000 four consecutive days.
The $91 million outflow's cause — Trump's fresh Iran demands and 5% oil jump rather than any crypto-specific negative development — means the ETF bid can return as quickly as the macro deteriorated if Wednesday's CPI provides a dovish surprise or Iran deal negotiations produce a credible Oman-mediated framework. Institutional allocators using ETFs as their Bitcoin exposure vehicle are managing macro risk, not changing their Bitcoin conviction.
The CPI Wednesday Setup — The Week's Defining Catalyst
Wednesday's US CPI print is the scheduled catalyst that will determine whether Bitcoin's fourth $65,000 failure is followed by a fifth or by the breakout that forces Kuptsikevich's short-covering dynamic. The specific inputs: Brent crude at $87.73 with a 5% Monday jump adding oil cost pressure, the base effect from June 2025's elevated energy prices potentially providing a favorable year-over-year comparison, core CPI excluding food and energy as the Fed's preferred inflation signal, and the overall headline number that will directly impact September rate hike probability from its current elevated level.
A CPI below 3.5% — particularly if core CPI shows deceleration — would reduce September hike odds, soften the 10-year yield from 4.71%, weaken the dollar, and provide Bitcoin with the macro permission to attempt a fifth $65,000 test with the short-covering fuel that Kuptsikevich identified. A CPI above 4.0% on energy-driven headline inflation would validate the hawks, send yields above 4.75%, and push Bitcoin back toward the 200-week SMA at $62,873.