Market history shows a high similarity: investors repeatedly make the same mistakes and never summarize past lessons. The Bitcoin four-year halving cycle has been running steadily. Currently, blocks are produced at 3.125 BTC every ten minutes, for a total supply of 21 million BTC. It has already produced nearly 20 million; the remaining coins will be mined out by the year 2140. This current bear market will definitely break below the previous bull market’s peak of $69,000. The cycle pattern is clear: every bear market’s bottom must break the prior all-time high, and the $70,000 level forms strong support. After breaking the support, there may be a “valid” rebound, but the overall long-term cycle remains downward. Looking back at drawdowns over the years: in February 2017, the $20,000 peak crashed by 85%; in 2021, the $69,000 peak retraced 77% to $15,500. This round’s decline is not as deep as 77%. If the bottom holds at $30,000, a 65% drop corresponds to a bottom around $45,000. The $30,000 to $60,000 range is the best zone for bottom-fishing. Below $60,000 the maximum floating loss can be 50%; falling from $60,000 down to $30,000 is already an extreme market. Below $60,000 is not suitable for blind bottom-fishing. There’s also no need to be overly bearish—this round’s bottom is very likely to land between $30,000 and $50,000. The top is expected to be reached on October 6, 2025 at $126,200. The one-year bear-market cycle will bottom in October 2026. After that, for several months there will be choppy consolidation and grinding as the whole network reaches extreme panic. The timing window toward year-end, the $30,000–$60,000 price range, and the “10” Fear Index being met are all that’s needed to plan entries. Hold long-term through 2029: sell into the $150,000–$250,000 BTC range, realizing a 2x to 8x profit. Coins like SOL and HYPE may explode with tremendous upside, but the large funds’ heavy-weight holdings will always be Bitcoin—controlling 60% of the market share. The ultimate goal of every project is to harvest retail investors, and Bitcoin is the final form of the crypto market.