#SHEIN plans to start Hong Kong IPO share offering as early as next week
SHEIN’s Hong Kong IPO could be next week: valuation cut from nearly US$100 billion to US$30 billion—who is repricing it?
SHEIN is finally just a few steps away from listing. The latest reports say SHEIN plans to launch its Hong Kong IPO as early as August 19. The market target valuation is about US$30–40 billion.
But what truly interests me isn’t “finally going public,” but this number:
In 2022, SHEIN’s private-market valuation once reached as high as US$98.2 billion. Now it may be down to around US$30 billion—cutting by roughly two-thirds.
Why? Because the capital markets are now truly starting to look at the numbers.
SHEIN’s revenue in 2025 is still as high as $41.8 billion, with net profit of about $2.06 billion—still looking like a very profitable company. But its growth has clearly slowed down.
More complicated is that in the first quarter of 2026, SHEIN directly posted a net loss of $99 million, whereas it earned $395 million in the same period last year.
Behind it are several very real pressures: the U.S. ends the tax-free incentive for small parcels, tariffs and logistics costs rise, competition from platforms like Temu, regulatory pressure in Europe and the U.S., and profit margins being continuously compressed.
So what SHEIN is facing now is, in fact, one of the toughest hurdles for many assets priced on “future stories”:
Private markets can trade stories, but public markets start demanding cash flow.
I find this matter also very interesting to the crypto community.
In Crypto, we see high FDV and high fundraising valuations every day, and with every new narrative, you can get tens of billions in valuation. But once the market starts looking at revenue, profit, and cash flow, valuations can be cut very quickly.
SHEIN isn’t a failing company—$41.8 billion in revenue is already very large. The issue is that the market used to be willing to value it at nearly $100 billion, but now it may only be willing to value it at $30 billion.
This is the difference between a “good company” and a “good price.”
Now there are two scenarios:
Scenario A: Demand for underwriting is strong, and the valuation can stand around $35–40 billion, which shows the market is still willing to pay a premium for SHEIN’s global scale and growth.
Scenario B: If institutions are only willing to place orders in the $20-plus billion range, that means the capital market is continuing to compress the valuations of high-growth companies.
My judgment:
This time, what’s truly worth watching about SHEIN’s IPO isn’t how much it jumps on day one, but how many times’ profit and how many times’ sales investors are ultimately willing to pay.
If even a global company like SHEIN has to be cut from a valuation of nearly $100 billion all the way down to $30 billion, then it’s a reminder for all assets whose valuations rely solely on “future stories”:
A story can be expensive, but in the end, the market will still come back to do the math.