A piece of writing I had finished but never submitted ended up lying in a folder all day. That day, $BMT pulled back the surge from August 9—getting back two-thirds.
Back then it jumped from $0.01313 to $0.03302, a day that more than doubled and a half. I wrote a full horizontal comparison article—three coins laid side by side—finished it and even felt pretty pleased with myself. But it got stuck at the verification stage, and never got sent. Looking back now, it’s kind of funny: getting stuck actually helped me, because in that piece there was a big chunk seriously discussing whether it could hold above $0.03.
Yesterday at 4 p.m. it was still at $0.03294. Now it’s $0.01985—down 31.2% in 24 hours. Today’s low is $0.01946, and it’s only one step away from the floor.
I scrolled through announcements and unlock schedules, but didn’t find any event that matches the drop over these two days, so I can only look for answers in the order book. The answer the order book gives is much colder than a bearish dump.
Spot trading volume in the last 24 hours is $14.91 million. On the surface it looks fine, but once you break it down, the truth shows. From 8 a.m. this morning until now—those eleven hours—volume is only a little over a tenth of yesterday’s full day. Even average per trade keeps shrinking: on the pump day it was $51.88 per trade; yesterday $38.65; today $36.79. There aren’t actually many people dumping. The buyers aren’t coming in either. The money left in the market is fragmenting one transaction at a time.
The futures side is even more explicit. The funding rate is currently -0.001% every 8 hours (the payment that longs and shorts make to each other; the baseline is 0.01%). It’s basically hugging zero, and shorts don’t need to pay even a penny of premium. No one is lining up to short—so that kind of script that relies on shorts covering to hard-pull it up has no fuel. Futures’ daily trading volume is 26 times the current open interest. It’s all intraday round trips—nobody is willing to hold overnight.
So my view is very straightforward: waiting for shorts to get squeezed out so you can copy that bottom is a dead end. The reference that should be watched is the starting point from August 8 at $0.01312. Before the pump, it had been sitting there. It’s still about 50% higher than that now—and this pullback hasn’t finished unwinding yet.
Here’s a line you can verify today. If it breaks today’s low of $0.01946, that’s the next step toward that starting point. If you want me to change my wording, you’d need to see two things at the same time: the price must reclaim above $0.0225 (today’s intraday high hit $0.02329, it’s within reach), and daily trading volume must get back above $20 million. Missing either one doesn’t count.
I’m not going to revise that draft. I’ll leave it in the folder as a reminder. Something that can rise by one and a half times in a day won’t ask you whether you’re there when it comes back.
Back then it jumped from $0.01313 to $0.03302, a day that more than doubled and a half. I wrote a full horizontal comparison article—three coins laid side by side—finished it and even felt pretty pleased with myself. But it got stuck at the verification stage, and never got sent. Looking back now, it’s kind of funny: getting stuck actually helped me, because in that piece there was a big chunk seriously discussing whether it could hold above $0.03.
Yesterday at 4 p.m. it was still at $0.03294. Now it’s $0.01985—down 31.2% in 24 hours. Today’s low is $0.01946, and it’s only one step away from the floor.
I scrolled through announcements and unlock schedules, but didn’t find any event that matches the drop over these two days, so I can only look for answers in the order book. The answer the order book gives is much colder than a bearish dump.
Spot trading volume in the last 24 hours is $14.91 million. On the surface it looks fine, but once you break it down, the truth shows. From 8 a.m. this morning until now—those eleven hours—volume is only a little over a tenth of yesterday’s full day. Even average per trade keeps shrinking: on the pump day it was $51.88 per trade; yesterday $38.65; today $36.79. There aren’t actually many people dumping. The buyers aren’t coming in either. The money left in the market is fragmenting one transaction at a time.
The futures side is even more explicit. The funding rate is currently -0.001% every 8 hours (the payment that longs and shorts make to each other; the baseline is 0.01%). It’s basically hugging zero, and shorts don’t need to pay even a penny of premium. No one is lining up to short—so that kind of script that relies on shorts covering to hard-pull it up has no fuel. Futures’ daily trading volume is 26 times the current open interest. It’s all intraday round trips—nobody is willing to hold overnight.
So my view is very straightforward: waiting for shorts to get squeezed out so you can copy that bottom is a dead end. The reference that should be watched is the starting point from August 8 at $0.01312. Before the pump, it had been sitting there. It’s still about 50% higher than that now—and this pullback hasn’t finished unwinding yet.
Here’s a line you can verify today. If it breaks today’s low of $0.01946, that’s the next step toward that starting point. If you want me to change my wording, you’d need to see two things at the same time: the price must reclaim above $0.0225 (today’s intraday high hit $0.02329, it’s within reach), and daily trading volume must get back above $20 million. Missing either one doesn’t count.
I’m not going to revise that draft. I’ll leave it in the folder as a reminder. Something that can rise by one and a half times in a day won’t ask you whether you’re there when it comes back.