ETH is currently around 1892 and has just bounced up a little. In the past 1 hour there have been 6 bullish candles and not a single bearish one. The price has regained the 20- and 50-period lines. In the order book, buy orders are pressing down on sell orders, and the spot market’s active buy orders are close to about twice the sell orders—so there is strength in this short-term move.
But at this level, I won’t rush to chase longs. The real big money still hasn’t come back: over the past 3 hours, spot large orders are still overall net outflows. In more than a dozen cycles, not even one period has shown a positive inflow—earlier large orders have been撤回. Although the net long on whale accounts is still over 60%, in the past 7 hours it has dropped by nearly 4 percentage points, clearly reducing exposure.
The derivatives side also isn’t cooperating. Open interest is still rising, but the quadrant targets are biased bearish; the funding rate is stuck near 0, and the basis is still at a discount. On the technical side, MACD is still being suppressed, and ADX hasn’t even reached 20. In plain terms, this is consolidation, not a clean trend.
On the news front, it’s lively—people are saying that large holders are collecting tens of thousands of ETH, and sentiment has been pushed quite high. But sentiment is sentiment; hard numbers are the real indicator.
So at this point, I lean toward watching and waiting. The short-term bounce is a bounce, but without confirmation from big capital, the risk-reward for chasing longs is average. Let it hold steady and let large orders turn positive—then we’ll talk. I’ll look here for now and not move.
#eth $ETH
But at this level, I won’t rush to chase longs. The real big money still hasn’t come back: over the past 3 hours, spot large orders are still overall net outflows. In more than a dozen cycles, not even one period has shown a positive inflow—earlier large orders have been撤回. Although the net long on whale accounts is still over 60%, in the past 7 hours it has dropped by nearly 4 percentage points, clearly reducing exposure.
The derivatives side also isn’t cooperating. Open interest is still rising, but the quadrant targets are biased bearish; the funding rate is stuck near 0, and the basis is still at a discount. On the technical side, MACD is still being suppressed, and ADX hasn’t even reached 20. In plain terms, this is consolidation, not a clean trend.
On the news front, it’s lively—people are saying that large holders are collecting tens of thousands of ETH, and sentiment has been pushed quite high. But sentiment is sentiment; hard numbers are the real indicator.
So at this point, I lean toward watching and waiting. The short-term bounce is a bounce, but without confirmation from big capital, the risk-reward for chasing longs is average. Let it hold steady and let large orders turn positive—then we’ll talk. I’ll look here for now and not move.
#eth $ETH