Let’s calmly break down what’s happening in the market right now. There’s a lot of information, but if you strip away the emotions, the picture looks interesting.

Since July 29, large holders have accumulated more than 20,000 BTC. At the current price, that’s about $1.2 billion. They’re buying around $65,000, and they’re doing it not on exchanges, but through over-the-counter venues — OTC desks. Specific platforms where such deals take place include Binance OTC, Kraken OTC, and Coinbase Prime. You can buy Bitcoin for millions there without moving the price on public exchanges. That’s why we don’t see sharp spikes, even though they’re buying a lot. Meanwhile, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs over the week exceeded $754 million — the best figure since April. Institutions are entering seriously.

Now, this is the most interesting part. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin inventories on over-the-counter venues are sharply declining. In 2022, there were about 550,000 BTC there. Now it’s roughly 150,000 BTC. Inventories dropped by 400,000 coins over the past few years. This means whales aren’t just buying — they’re taking Bitcoin off the market and holding it. In bull cycles, OTC inventories typically grew because sellers were preparing to lock in profits. Right now it’s the opposite: there are no sellers, everyone is holding. At the same time, long-term holders are selling fewer coins than in previous cycles. People are waiting for growth, not rushing to exit.

Now, let’s talk about Saylor. He, via his company Strategy, sold 1,638 BTC (about $105 million) at $63,957. At the same time, the company’s average purchase price is $75,419. The sale is at a loss. But here’s what’s important to understand: Strategy is a public company, not Saylor’s personal wallet. They need to pay dividends, buy back shares, and manage capital. Under their capital policy, they can sell Bitcoin up to $1.25 billion for these purposes. Saylor himself emphasized: “I personally didn’t sell a single satoshi.” Meanwhile, Strategy continues to buy — they recently reported acquiring another 520 BTC for nearly $35 million. The company holds more than 847,000 BTC, and a large forced liquidation is unlikely — their next major debt payment is only in Q3 2028.

Who’s running the market right now? Institutional investors. According to Wintermute, they account for 72% of the OTC crypto trading volume. For comparison: a year ago it was 59%. Retail investors have taken a back seat. Institutions behave differently from retail. They don’t panic or flee at the first signs of a correction. Their strategy is to accumulate gradually via OTC, without creating noise. That’s exactly why the price is staying put, even though big money is moving in.

Key question — when to expect growth. As long as whales are buying through OTC, the price doesn’t move. But once the inventories on those platforms run out — and they are already at a minimum — big players will have to move to public exchanges. That’s when the real upward movement will begin. Bernstein analysts maintain a target of $150,000 by the end of 2026. Yes, Bitcoin is currently down 54% from the October peak, but that’s milder than the 70–80% drops in past cycles. The market is becoming more mature. And the correction has already lasted three quarters — less than the historical 12–15 months.

As for the near-term outlook — in the coming months, there’s likely to be consolidation in the 60–70 thousand range. Don’t expect a sudden breakout — institutions don’t like noise. But if you’re holding Bitcoin and ready to wait, the outlook is good. There is demand, OTC supply is tightening, and big players are continuing to accumulate. The main risk isn’t the price dropping, but the behavior of large holders like Strategy. If they need to sell big volumes on an exchange, not through OTC, that could trigger a correction. But for now, they’re acting carefully.

And finally. If you have Bitcoin — just hold it. Don’t listen to all that market noise, the cries about a crash or a rocket. The market will always swing, and news will either scare you or delight you. But if you believe in Bitcoin and you invested money you don’t mind losing — sit tight and wait. Big players have already decided everything without us. This isn’t financial advice, just my opinion. Everyone makes their own decision.